By Rich Masters, Partner, Washington, D.C., Qorvis
It’s been a long time since so much attention was given to an election day that will have almost zero impact on the day-to-day operations in Washington, D.C. Prior to November 4, the traditional mainstream media breathlessly covered the elections as both a horse race and a referendum on President Trump, while more partisan outlets pushed narratives to advance their own causes. However, there is no way to sugar coat the election, it was a big night for democrats and a warning sign for the midterm election for republicans.
The reality: nothing that happened on Tuesday is likely to alter the underlying policy or priority landscape in D.C. The only exception is the government shutdown, last night President Trump indicated that the federal government shutdown and his absence from the ballot caused the blue wave yesterday. Expect to see the shutdown issue resolved soon.
Historically, the president’s party tends to lose congressional seats in midterm elections after the second year in office. While the midterms are still a year away, the 2025 elections did provide key indicators—as well as messaging opportunities and challenges—for both parties heading into the crucial contests that could actually shape policy. Here’s what we learned.
New York City Mayor’s Race
Thirty-four-year-old Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist, ran an unabashedly progressive campaign against a field that included “traditional” Democrat and former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who entered the race as an independent following his scandal-plagued exit from office. Mamdani is an energetic, charismatic candidate, but he advocates policies far to the left of traditional Democrats and much of the country. Cuomo, meanwhile, was the preferred choice of many Trump allies, offering a more centrist and conventional Democratic platform. Mamdani won in a landslide to become the youngest Mayor in NYC history.
Midterm Messages:
This Democratic win could actually serve as a messaging win for Republicans heading into next year. It drew the most media attention, and because Republicans strategically positioned Mamdani as the Democratic standard-bearer, it further cements the narrative of an ascendant left-wing faction within the Democratic Party. In the coming months and through Election Day next year, expect Republicans to make Mamdani a household name.
New Jersey Governor’s Race
It’s been a generation since New Jersey voters elected a governor from the same party for a third consecutive term, so history was against Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill. The 53-year-old former Navy pilot ran as a center-left, pro–national security Democrat. Her opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, a former state legislator, was endorsed by President Trump.
While polls showed a close race, Sherrill won by double digits. And as a warning sign to the White House, she handily won three counties that Donald Trump had flipped just a year ago.
Midterm Messages:
A centrist message focused on fighting inflation and making life more affordable coupled with a dynamic non-traditional candidate can defy the odds. Another lesson? We should view polls with skepticism.
Virginia Governor’s Race
In Virginia, Democrats tried to flip the Mamdani narrative with a decisive win for center-left Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger. The former CIA officer and centrist Democrat easily defeated Republican Winsome Earl Sears, a former Marine and current lieutenant governor. Democrats also surprisingly swept all the other statewide elections and picked up seats in the House of Delegates. The win by Attorney General candidate Jay Jones was perhaps the most stunning, with polls showing the race too close to call. But he pulled off a win that, while more modest than Spanberger’s, was still decisive. If any result of the night pointed to a wave election for Democrats, this was it.
Midterm Messages:
Spanberger’s decisive center-left campaign contrasted sharply with the more progressive messaging of other Virginia candidates but only mattered slightly. National Democrats will likely frame this as a win for moderates to counter the Mamdani narrative.
Now the real work begins. While Spanberger ran as a “moderate,” her policy positions were intentionally vague, allowing flexibility once she takes office. The true test will come when she begins governing—especially as her more liberal legislative colleagues attempt to pull her leftward.
California Proposition 50
While poll after poll shows that Americans across the spectrum dislike gerrymandering, the Proposition 50 result in California proves that Democrats are willing to fight fire with fire.
The long-term effect of this measure is that it elevates mid-decade gerrymandering to a new level, likely prompting other states to follow suit. It also forces Democrats to forfeit the moral high ground on redistricting, turning the issue into a “me too” moment. While it’s true that President Trump initiated the mid-decade redistricting fight to protect the Republican House majority next year, Democrats in California following suit helps neutralize potential blowback from blaming the president.
The Bottom Line
The results and President Trump’s reaction will likely mean the end of the government shutdown, but don’t expect much else. For those in public affairs in Washington, D.C., the results may provide lively conversation at holiday parties, but ultimately, they will change very little about the prospects for legislative or political action in the year ahead. President Trump has an aggressive agenda and even these results are unlikely to change that.
While Democrats are celebrating, the results are a mixed bag in terms of predicting what they might mean for next year’s midterm elections. On one hand, if Republicans successfully brand the Mamdani win as evidence of a socialist takeover of the Democratic Party—and if Mamdani follows through with his most far-left policy proposals—life could become difficult for Democrats in swing districts, where the House majority is at stake.
The real excitement begins now as congressional campaigns get underway. The first primaries begin as early as March 2026, and those contests will tell us more about how the midterms might affect policy battles in D.C. than any of the results from this week. With both parties facing multiple intraparty primary fights, we’ll soon see which direction each party is heading—and what that means for the pace of change in Washington.
On the other hand, if Democrats in swing districts learn from the results in Virginia—a larger and more diverse electorate than New York City’s—they could potentially retake House leadership.