In the hours following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, global media outlets turned to Tom Sharpe, OBE — Qorvis Senior Advisor and former Royal Navy Commander — for immediate analysis.
With 27 years of operational naval command experience, including war-gaming scenarios involving Iran, Sharpe joined BBC News on February 28 and LBC on March 1 to assess what the strikes mean for Gulf security, missile defense systems, and the risk of broader escalation.
His central message: this is a numbers game — and Iran has prepared for it.
As Iran was retaliating against several Gulf states, Sharpe explained to the BBC why Bahrain stood out as a logical target. In his assessment, Bahrain was likely viewed by Tehran as a high-profile objective that has, historically, had relatively limited air defenses — making it strategically significant in the early stages of retaliation.
But Iran’s missile and drone capabilities “are massively dispersed,” said Sharpe. “If the Iranians unleash everything – go hard and fast if the regime feels threatened, then eventually the U.S. will run out of THAAD and Patriot interceptors.”
Tune in to Sharpe’s LBC interview from 11:01 to 16:20, click here to listen.
“It’s very difficult to pick through what’s real and what isn’t, online, with the absolute deluge of reporting,” Sharpe continued in an interview with LBC. “Aside from the regime issue, that is critical to all this, is the rate at which Iran is striking is still in my mind, very low.”
Sharpe added that we don’t know if this restraint is a choice or necessity. If restraint is Iran’s choice, “it’s very significant, the number of missiles they have that are mobile, that are hardened, or sheltered, etc.,” he noted.
Iran’s capabilities and response
Sharpe also commented on the amount of weapons that Iran has given to its proxies over time.
“They certainly gave the Houthis an awful lot of their weapons until the Houthis became sufficiently proficient in making their own, they actually then started exporting them back to Iran.”
Looking back on his own time in the Royal Navy and involvement in war games exploring the possibility of conflict with Iran, he conceded, “We overestimated Iran’s ability to defeat aircraft; the suppression of enemy air defense is easier this time than we thought it would be. And we also overestimated the capability of their theater ballistic missile systems, they are clearly not very accurate, they are clearly not very good.”
“If [Iran] can dial it up, then it becomes a numbers game. Eventually you run out of defensive missiles, be that Patriot or THAAD, and then you are in a very different sort of area,” he warned.
Regarding capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has “an awful lot of stranglehold down there,” continued Sharpe, including “over 5,000 mines available … [and] up to 20 Ghadir-class mini submarines.”
“To clear [the Strait of Hormuz], to render it safe, you’ve got to put yourself, right in harm’s way.”
What comes next for Iran
Sharpe noted that the Iranian regime “has had 35 years to prepare themselves militarily” for this moment. “Likewise, so have various movements in Iran to counter an event like this.”
“A lot of it comes down to the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]… and how many of them will flip sides at the 11th hour?”
To listen to Sharpe’s full LBC interview with Matthew Wright, click here.
To read all of the analysis Sharpe shared with BBC News, click here.
To see Sharpe share his analysis on BBC News, watch the video below.
