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By Guy-Alexandre Lukama, Intern, DC, Qorvis

Earlier this month, Iran and Israel exchanged missiles in a significant escalation – scaring markets and inciting fear of all out war. Given the rapid developments, global audiences have questions about the motives and what happens next.

Retired Royal Navy Officer and current communications consultant and writer at The Telegraph, Tom Sharpe, O.B.E joined Max Foster on CNN to share his insights on the White House’s rhetoric and strategy, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz, and the posture of the Iranian regime.

When asked about the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, Sharpe answered:

“They have excellent surveillance and awareness in that area. So there’s an awful lot they could do there to cause disruption. Much like the houthis in the Bab El-Mandeb. The crucial difference being there’s no alternative route for the oil that needs to come out of there. And that’s why the working assumption has always been that Iran wouldn’t close the strait. China might not allow it, for example, unless they believe the regime is under threat. And I’m not sure if we’re at that point yet, but I think there’s a lot more action to be seen down near the strait should they choose to do so.”

Foster also asked Sharpe about the possibility of internal excitement for a regime change in Iran. The line of questioning came as analysts are assessing internal sentiment within Iran centered around the issue: to what degree the antagonism towards Israel and the United States is sincere or simply nationalistic. A difficult assessment to make as Foster argues the Iranian leadership seems quite popular within the nation. Sharpe contended that:

“I think that depends who you speak to. I know plenty of people very close to this who would probably contest that. Maybe we’re just seeing examples of those that are, look, I don’t know the internal workings of the politics within Iran closely enough to know which way this would be supported. And of course, as ever, if you replace this leader, who do you replace him with? And what does that look like? That is a huge unanswered question to me.”

From missiles to mineyards, Iran is poised to protect their home court advantage. In an article written by Sharpe discussing the decision to reposition the USS Nimitz from the Straits of Malacca to the Middle East, Sharpe echoed the same sentiment:

“If the Iranians choose to close the strait, it will be difficult to do much about it. Their mass mobility and dispersal makes striking back difficult and doing so inexorable draws the U.S. into the conflict they don’t want. The U.S. Had to expend more than $1 billion worth of munitions to pound Houthis into their current ceasefire. Iran would be much harder to crack”.

No doubt that the Strait of Hormuz will be a pivotal axis for observers and analysts to focus on in the unfolding of this conflict in the coming weeks.

The rhetoric coming from President Trump and Senior White House officials has made it particularly difficult for analysts to make a prediction as they have been very guarded in their messaging. When asked about his opinion on the current American stance, Sharpe highlighted the receptiveness and malleability of the American process.

“And the language coming out of the White House is developing so quickly, I think that’s nearly impossible to tell where this all ends up. I mean, clearly there’s a dotted line between ruining their enrichment capability and regime change. And I don’t know which of those two the White House is after. Right now they’re moving the pieces of the chessboard in place to do both. There’s no doubt about that. ​​And again, in planning terms, that’s always been required. Iran does have thousands of these missiles. So they need the pieces of the jigsaw in place before they can contemplate either. And that’s what’s happening now, albeit with a slightly breathless increase in rhetoric this afternoon, which leads lots of people to assume that strikes on Fordow in particular, are imminent”.  [This comment was made a few hours before Iran’s nuclear facilities were struck by multiple B2 raids. There then followed a ‘show of force’ attack by Iran on the CAOC in Al Udeid that was defeated.]

For more on Sharpe’s analysis and a deeper dive into the potential avenues of the defanging of Iran in his latest two articles in the Telegraph, The Most Powerful Conventional Engine of Warfare Ever Built Is Headed For Iran and Bad Luck, Lord Hermer. We Are Inextricably Involved In Any US Strike On Iran