LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Tucker Carlson – Debt Ceiling Blame – Candidate Age, Health – Trials Heats for President
Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, May 10, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 1 from April 25
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (down 1 from April 25), putting him at 10 points net-negative.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters nationwide/statewide
GENERAL ELECTION
NATIONWIDE
Among all voters nationwide
Joe Biden and Donald Trump: even (43-41) Economist
Joe Biden and Donald Trump: +2 (46-46) Emerson
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +6 (45-39) WaPost/ABC
Average: Trump +1.3
Joe Biden over Ron DeSantis: +3 (45-42) Economist
Joe Biden over Ron DeSantis: +6 (43-37) Emerson
Ron DeSantis over Joe Biden: +6 (44-38) WaPost/ABC
Average: Biden +1
RON’S COMMENT: Whoa, a lot of conflicting polls here. Most importantly, Trump is doing slightly better in the averages than DeSantis––and that’s not good for DeSantis, who must show that he’s the strongest Republican candidate in the general election.
TENNESSEE
Among all voters statewideDonald Trump over Joe Biden: +16 (42-26)
Ron DeSantis over Joe Biden: +9 (33-24)
RON’S COMMENT: Another poll showing Trump doing better than DeSantis against Biden…. Neither Republican is doing as well as in 2020, when Trump won Tennessee by 23 points. (poll by Vanderbilt Univ.)
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE NATIONWIDE
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 55%
- Ron DeSantis: 21%
- Mike Pence: 6%
- Nikki Haley: 4%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 3%
- Tim Scott: 1%
- Asa Hutchinson: 1%
- Chris Christie: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump beats the field 55-37 in this average of the last five national polls of GOP primary voters nationwide. Trump has a wide 34-point lead. Pence, Haley and Ramaswamy are angling for a distant third place. Scott, Hutchinson and Christie aren’t moving.
ARIZONA
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 49%
- Ron DeSantis: 21%
- Mike Pence: 7%
- Nikki Haley: 4%
- Liz Cheney: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s lead is not that different among Arizona Republicans than it is among national Republicans.
NORTH CAROLINA
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 55%
- Ron DeSantis: 22%
- Mike Pence: 8%
- Nikki Haley: 5%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 2%
- Tim Scott: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s lead is about the same among North Carolina Republicans as it is among national Republicans.
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE NATIONWIDE
Among Democratic primary voters
- Joe Biden: 65%
- Robert Kennedy, Jr.: 20%
- Marianne Williamson: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden beats the field 65-27 in this national average of the three most recent polls of Democratic voters.
TUCKER CARLSON
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Tucker Carlson?
- Favorable: 46%
- Unfavorable: 38%
As you may know, Fox News fired Tucker Carlson last month. Do you approve or disapprove of Fox News firing Tucker Carlson?
- Approve of firing: 42%
- Disapprove of firing: 33%
- Not sure: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: While more voters are favorable toward Carlson than unfavorable, more approve of his firing than disapprove…. Internals from the Economist/YouGov poll:
- Carlson’s rating among Republicans is 72% favorable/14% unfavorable, among Democrats 30% favorable/59% unfavorable and among independents 36% favorable/33% unfavorable.
- 21% of Republicans say they approved of Fox firing him and 56% disapproved.
- 41% of Republicans say they watched Carlson on Fox News at least a few times a week when he was on air.
- Since Carlson’s firing, 47% of Republicans say they watch Fox News the same amount, 36% say they watch it less often and 18% say they watch it more often.
CANDIDATE AGE, HEALTH
Among voters nationwide
Do you think only Biden is too old for another term as president, only Trump is too old for another term as president, both are too old for another term as president, or neither is too old for another term as president?
- Only Biden is too old: 26%
- Only Trump is too old: 1%
- Both are too old: 43%
- Neither is too old: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: This shows that 69% of voters think Biden is too old and 44% think Trump is too old…. Are Democrats whistling in the dark about their president’s age problem?
Do you think Biden is in good enough physical health to serve effectively as president, or not?
- Yes: 33%
- No: 62%
Do you think Trump is in good enough physical health to serve effectively as president, or not?
- Yes: 65%
- No: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: A big majority thinks Biden is not in good enough health to serve another term, while a big majority thinks Trump is. Nearly a quarter of Democrats (23%) think Biden is not in good enough health to serve another term.
DEBT CEILING BLAME
Among voters nationwide
If the debt limit is not raised and the government goes into default, who would you mainly blame for that – Biden or the Republicans in Congress?
- Blame Biden: 36%
- Blame Republicans in Congress: 39%
- Both equally: 16%
- Neither: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: Neither side escapes blame; while Republicans have a bit more exposure, voters are closely split.
TENNESSEE: EXPULSION OF LEGISLATORS
Among all voters statewide
As you may know, the Republican supermajority in the Tennessee State House recently voted to expel two Democrat lawmakers – one from Nashville and one from Memphis – for a breach in “decorum” after they led a gun control protest on the House floor following the Covenant School shootings. Do you (strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree) (strongly disagree, somewhat disagree, somewhat agree, or strongly agree) with the decision to expel these legislators?
Agree with expulsion of legislators: 46%
Disagreed with expulsion of legislators: 49%
RON’S COMMENT: This Vanderbilt Univ. poll shows that Republican-led expulsion of state legislators for violating House decorum rules was a net loser for the GOP, even in this very red state. Worth noting: Intensity is even worse for Republicans; 29% strongly agree with them, while 39% strongly disagree.
- On the gun issue, this poll shows that 75% of Tennessee voters support red flag laws, 67% support requiring gun owners to securely store their firearms and 50% support banning assault-style weapons. Also: 82% of voters support Gov. Bill Lee (R)’s executive order strengthening background checks.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron