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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump’s GOP nomination lead slips, but DeSantis doesn’t gain – Third Party – Michigan Senate close


In Insights Posted

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, June 17, 2023

Down 2 from May 22

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as May 22), putting him at 14 points net-negative.

Among voters statewide



  • Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4 (48-44) Quinnipiac
  • Joe Biden and Donald Trump: even (41-41) Economist


  • Joe Biden and Donald Trump: even (44-44)
  • Ron DeSantis over Joe Biden: +1 (45-44)

RON’S COMMENT: While Trump ties Biden in the key swing state of Michigan, DeSantis leads Biden by a point. Trump won the state in 2016 and Biden won it in 2020. (poll by EPIC-MRA)


  • Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +17 (52-35)
  • Joe Biden over Ron DeSantis: +14 (51-37)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden unsurprisingly wins this Democratic bastion against both Trump and DeSantis, although DeSantis does better than Trump. (poll by Gonzales)


NATIONWIDE AVERAGE (based on 3 polls)
Among Republican primary voters nationwide

  • Donald Trump: 52%
  • Ron DeSantis: 20%
  • Mike Pence: 5%
  • Nikki Haley: 4%
  • Tim Scott: 4%
  • Chris Christie: 3%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy: 2%
  • Asa Hutchinson: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: This is an average of the three polls fully conducted afterTrump’s recent federal indictment. It shows him beating the field 52-39, with a 32-point lead over DeSantis. The average of the three polls completed beforethe latest indictment had Trump beating the field, 55-33, with a 34-point lead over DeSantis…. Since the last indictment:

  • Trump’s lead over the field declined from 22 points to 13 points.
  • Trump’s lead over DeSantis declined from 34 points to 32 points.
  • DeSantis is down 1 point, Pence is up 1 point, Haley is up 1 point, Scott is up 2 points and Christie is up 2 points.
  • Takeaway: Trump still rides high atop the GOP field, but has lost some strength with Republican primary voters since the last indictment. Importantly, what Trump lost did not go to DeSantis; instead, much of it went to Pence, Haley, Scott and Christie. That is not a good sign for DeSantis; he’s still paying for his botched campaign launch.


NATIONWIDE AVERAGE (based on 3 polls)
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

  • Joe Biden: 61%
  • Robert Kennedy, Jr.: 15%
  • Marianne Williamson: 6%

RON’S COMMENT: Biden beats the field 61-21. (poll by Messenger/HarrisX)

Among voters statewideElissa Slotkin (D) over

James Craig (R): +1 (40-39)

RON’S COMMENT: Slotkin, a member of the U.S. House, posts a tiny lead over former Detroit police chief James Craig in this open Senate race. Slotkin’s statewide rating is 19% favorable/13% unfavorable and Craig is 16% favorable/11% unfavorable…. The seat is currently held by Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow…. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), by the way, scores 53% favorable/40% unfavorable…. UFO report: 61% of Michigan voters believe alien beings from other planets have visited the Earth in UFOs. (poll by EPIC-MRA)

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/ Unfavorable

  • Joe Biden: 42%/54%
  • Robert Kennedy, Jr.: 31%/26%
  • Donald Trump: 37%/59%
  • Nikki Haley: 23%/45%
  • Ron DeSantis: 33%/48%
  • Mike Pence: 25%/59%
  • Tim Scott: 22%/22%
  • Asa Hutchinson: 10%/17%
  • Chris Christie: 19%/53%

RON’S COMMENT: The numbers above are among all voters nationwide…. Note that Kennedy is the only candidate with a net positive rating, Scott is even and everybody else tilts negative…. Trump and Pence have the highest negatives. Only Biden has a positive rating above 40%. (poll by Quinnipiac)

Among voters nationwide

Do you think Donald Trump intentionally took classified documents when he left the White House?

  • Yes: 59%
  • No: 20%

Do you think Donald Trump should face any criminal charges for his handling of classified documents?

  • Yes: 51%
  • No: 37%

RON’S COMMENT: Majorities of voters think Trump intentionally took classified documents and should face criminal charges. 83% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 12% of Republicans say he should face criminal charges. (poll by Economist/YouGov)

Among voters nationwide

Do you think a third major political party is necessary for the United States, or are the Democratic and Republican parties enough to represent Americans?

  • A third party is necessary in the U.S.: 44%
  • The Democratic and Republican parties are enough to represent Americans: 30%
  • Not sure: 25%

RON’S COMMENT: More voters say a third party is necessary for the U.S. than those who say the two major parties are enough. Also note that 25% is not sure…. When asked, “Would you ever vote for a third party or an independent candidate?” the poll finds that 48% of voters say yes and only 23% say no. (poll by Economist/YouGov)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron