Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, August 30, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from Aug. 4
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls––and all four have Biden at 43%. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (down 2 from Aug. 4), putting him at 9 points net-negative.
- The Emerson College poll shows Biden’s rating handling the situation in Maui was 32% approve/46% disapprove.
- Based on the new Harris X poll, here is Biden’s job approval rating by voter groups: Democrats 78%, Republicans 9%, Independents 39%, Men 42%, Women 45%, Whites 39%, Blacks 58%, Hispanics 44%, College grads 54%, Non-college grads 36%.
Among voters statewide
Among all voters
- Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +1 (45-44) HarrisX
- Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +1 (43-42) Morning Consult
- Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (46-44) Emerson
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden and Cornell West (Green): +5 (44-39-4) Emerson
RON’S COMMENT: In the HarrisX poll, 87% of Republicans vote for Trump and 83% of Democrats vote for Biden. Biden’s lead is attributable to independents, a group he wins 41-36. Also:
- In the HarrisX poll, 66% of voters wish Biden wouldn’t run again and 57% wish Trump wouldn’t run.
- Biden beats Trump by 2 in the Emerson poll, but when Green Party candidate Cornel West is added, Trump leads by 5; that’s a danger sign for Biden.
- Impact of indictments, Hunter Biden: According to the Emerson poll report, “Among independent voters, 46% are less likely to vote for Trump because of his indictments (25% more likely), and 43% are less likely to vote for Biden because of his son’s charges (16% more likely)”…. “A majority of Republicans (60%) are more likely to support Trump because of his indictments with 22% less likely, while Democrats are more split on Hunter’s charges: 37% are more likely and 27% are less likely to support Biden’s re-election with 36% unsure or have no opinion.”
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE OF LAST FIVE NATIONWIDE POLLS
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 53%
- Ron DeSantis: 14%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 8%
- Nikki Haley: 6%
- Mike Pence: 5%
- Chris Christie: 3%
- Tim Scott: 2%
- Other candidates received 1% or less
RON’S COMMENT: The numbers above are based on an average of five polls conducted after last week’s debate. Since the debate: Trump is down 3, Haley is up 3, DeSantis is up 3, Pence is up 1, Ramaswamy and Christie stayed the same and Scott is down 1…. Also: If Trump doesn’t run for the nomination, the nationwide GOP vote would become: DeSantis 18%, Ramaswamy 14%, Pence 10%, Haley 9%, Scott 9% and Christie 9%––in effect, a wide-open race. (poll by HarrisX)
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE OF LAST TWO NATIONWIDE POLLS
Among Democratic primary voters
Joe Biden: 64%
Robert Kennedy, Jr.: 13%
Marianne Williamson: 6%
Others/don’t know: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Among Democrats in the HarrisX poll, Biden receives 77% of men, 57% of women, 58% of 18-34-year-olds, 71% of Whites, 55% of Blacks and 58% of Hispanics. If Biden was out, the vote would be: Kamala Harris 41%, Kennedy 16%, Williamson 10%, somebody else 16% and don’t know 13%.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron