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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump Leads DeSantis – Kentucky, Pennsylvania – U.S. and China


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Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, April 15, 2023

Same as April 4

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 52% (same as April 4), putting him at 8 points net-negative.

Among voters statewide


Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +1 (44-43) Economist

RON’S COMMENT: Three of the five most recent national polls show Trump leading.

Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +1 (36-35) Franklin & Marshall 

RON’S COMMENT: This is a critical swing state, clearly one to watch. Trump won it by a small margin in 2016 and Biden won it by a small margin in 2020.


NATIONWIDE AVERAGE (based on four most recent polls)
Among Republican primary voters 

  • Donald Trump: 56%
  • Ron DeSantis: 22%
  • Mike Pence: 3%
  • Nikki Haley: 4%

RON’S COMMENT: These are averages based on the four most recent national polls. As you can see, Trump has built up a strong post-indictment lead over the field.

Among Republican primary voters

  • Donald Trump: 41%
  • Ron DeSantis: 20%
  • Nikki Haley: 18%
  • Tim Scott: 7%
  • Mike Pence: 5%
  • Mike Pompeo: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump has a 21-point lead over DeSantis in South Carolina. Haley, the state’s former governor, runs a close third and Scott, the state’s incumbent senator, is a distant fourth. (poll by Winthrop)

Among Republican primary voters 

  • Donald Trump: 51%
  • Ron DeSantis: 30%
  • Nikki Haley: 4%
  • Mike Pence: 2%
  • Liz Cheney: 2%
  • Mike Pompeo: 1%
  • Tim Scott: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump posts a sizable lead over DeSantis in Georgia. Nobody else gets much traction. (poll by Univ. of GA)

Among Republican primary voters 

  • Donald Trump: 38%
  • Ron DeSantis: 29%
  • Mike Pence: 6%
  • Nikki Haley: 6%
  • Mike Pompeo: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads DeSantis by 9 points in Oklahoma. Nobody else hits double digits. (poll by CHS)

Among Republican primary voters 

  • Donald Trump: 62%
  • Ron DeSantis: 23%
  • Mike Pence: 4%
  • Nikki Haley: 4%
  • Liz Cheney: 2%
  • Kristi Noem: 1%
  • Asa Hutchinson: 1%
  • Mike Pompeo: 1%
  • Tim Scott: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump crushes the GOP field in Kentucky, Mitch McConnell’s home state. (poll by Emerson)

Among Republican primary voters 

  • Donald Trump: 40%
  • Ron DeSantis: 34%
  • Mike Pence: 6%
  • Nikki Haley: 4%
  • Chris Sununu: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads Pennsylvania, but by a more modest margin. Among second choice votes, DeSantis leads with 33%, Trump is second at 18%, Haley 10% and Pence 8%. (poll by Franklin & Marshall)

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

PENNSYLVANIASen. Bob Casey (D) over Dave McCormick (R):  +7 (43-35)
Sen. Bob Casey (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +16 (47-31)
RON’S COMMENT: McCormick barely lost the Senate Republican primary last year to Dr. Oz. Mastriano lost the governor’s race last year to Democrat Josh Shapiro by a wide margin. Casey is favored for re-election, but McCormick is positioned to give him a real race in this critical swing state. (poll by Franklin & Marshall)

Among Republican voters statewide


  • Daniel Cameron: 30%
  • Kelly Craft: 24%
  • Ryan Quarles: 15%
  • Eric Deters: 6%

RON’S COMMENT: State AG Cameron holds a declining lead, and Craft is moving up on him. Quarles is also strengthening. Cameron has Trump’s support. Craft is the wealthy former U.S. ambassador to the UN. Quarles is agriculture commissioner. They’re vying for a shot at Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear in November. Primary May 16…. Handicappers rate the race “lean D” or “tossup.” (poll by Fox 56/Emerson)

Among U.S. adults nationwide

FavorabilityPlease tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of China?

  • Favorable: 14%
  • Unfavorable: 83%

RON’S COMMENT: Three years ago, this poll found China’s rating in the U.S. to be 26% favorable/66% unfavorable…. The latest polling shows China’s partnership with Russia causes the most trouble for Americans. (poll by Pew Research)

China and the U.S.On balance, do you think of China as a partner of the U.S., a competitor of the U.S. or an enemy of the U.S.? 

Competitor: 52%
Enemy: 38%
Partner: 6%

RON’S COMMENT: Current polling shows a substantial deterioration of how Americans view China. (poll by Pew Research)

World’s leading economic powerToday, which ONE of the following do you think is the world’s leading economic power? 

  • The U.S.: 48%
  • China: 38%
  • European Union: 6%
  • Japan: 5%

RON’S COMMENT: This is an improvement for the U.S. over a Pew poll last year when the U.S. and China were tied at 43% each. (poll by Pew Research)

Chinese interferenceIn general, to what extent do you think China interferes in the affairs of other countries – a great deal, a fair amount, not too much, or not at all?

  • Great deal/Fair amount: 77%
  • Not too much/Not at all: 20%

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron