Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 25, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as Oct. 17
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as Oct. 17), putting him at 13 points net-negative.
Among voters statewide
Among all voters
Three-way trial heat:
- Donald Trump: 38%
- Joe Biden: 35%
- Robert Kennedy Jr.: 16%
- Don’t know: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: This new Certus Insights poll finds RFK Jr. getting a substantial 16% of the national vote––more than any third candidate in 32 years. In this poll, Kennedy receives:
- 13% of Republicans, 17% of Democrats and 22% of independents.
- 12% of men, 20% of women.
- 20% of Hispanic voters, 16% of Black voters, 16% of White voters and 10% of Asians.
- 18% of 18-29-year-olds, 14% of 30-44-year-olds, 15% of 45-64-year-olds and 18% of those 65 and older.
- Kennedy gets far fewer votes from Republicans who are hard Trump supporters (3%) than from soft Trump supporters (21%) and from Never Trumpers (30%).
- Kennedy gets somewhat fewer votes from moderate Democrats (15%) than from progressive Democrats (19%).
Four-way trial heats:
- Trump 37%, Biden 37%, Kennedy 13%, West 4% (USA Today/Suffolk)
- Trump 40%, Biden 38%, Kennedy 18%, West 3% (HarrisX)
RON’S COMMENT: In the USA Today/Suffolk poll, Kennedy draws voters who would otherwise vote for the Republican nominee by 2-to-1 Without Kennedy in the race, Trump would beat Biden 41-39. …West’s votes, however, come mostly from Biden…. Also, 28% of Democratic voters and 18% of Republican voters said they might consider voting for a No Labels bipartisan ticket with a Republican and Democrat running.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE OF LAST THREE NATIONWIDE POLLS
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 60%
- Ron DeSantis: 12%
- Nikki Haley: 8%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 5%
- Mike Pence: 3%
- Tim Scott: 2%
- Chris Christie: 2%
- Doug Burgum: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump beats the field 60-33, a decisive lead. Haley is in an increasingly hard-edged race against DeSantis for second place. Why is second-place important? If Trump is convicted of any of the charges against him during the Republican nomination campaign, the second-place candidate may have a chance against him in a head-to-head contest. Note that this sentence includes the words IF, MAY and CHANCE.
MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL, UKRAINE, TAIWAN
Among voters nationwide
Do you support or oppose sending additional U.S. military aid to Israel?
- Approve: 58%
- Disapprove: 34%
Do you support or oppose sending additional U.S. military aid to Ukraine?
- Approve: 51%
- Disapprove: 43%
Do you support or oppose sending additional U.S. military aid to Taiwan?
- Approve: 43%
- Disapprove: 39%
RON’S COMMENT: Among Republicans, 65% favor military aid to Israel, 34% favor military aid to Ukraine and 45% favor military aid to Taiwan…. Among Democrats, 56% favor military aid to Israel, 77% favor military aid to Ukraine and 47% favor military aid to Taiwan. (Suffolk Univ.)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron