LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump Leading Most Swing State Polls – Speaker Johnson’s Job Rating Positive
Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, November 13, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 2 from a week ago
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (down 3 from a week ago), putting him at 12 points net-negative.
- Biden’s job rating handling the Israel-Hamas War is 35% approve/47% disapprove in the Economist/You Gov poll. Among Biden’s own supporters, his rating is a lackluster 52% approve/27% disapprove on this issue.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters statewide
GENERAL ELECTION
NATIONWIDE
Among all voters
- Trump over Biden: +4 (49-45) CNN
- Trump over Biden/Kennedy/West: +6 (41-35-16-4) CNN
RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads the two-way race and does even better in the four-way trial heat.
BY STATE
Among voters statewide
Michigan: Biden over Trump: +2 (45-43) Emerson
Michigan: Trump and Biden: even (43-43) Bloomberg
Michigan: Biden over Trump/Kennedy/West: +1 (38-37-10-2) Bloomberg
Wisconsin: Trump and Biden: even (45-45) Emerson
Wisconsin: Trump over Biden: +1 (47-46) Bloomberg
Wisconsin: Trump over Biden/Kennedy/West: +2 (38-36-13-2) Bloomberg
Wisconsin: Haley over Biden: +9 (53-44) Marquette
Georgia: Trump over Biden: +8 (49-41) Emerson
Georgia: Trump over Biden: +7 (48-41) Bloomberg
Georgia: Trump over Biden/Kennedy/West: +9 (43-34-10-1) Bloomberg
Pennsylvania: Trump over Biden: +4 (49-45) Emerson
Pennsylvania: Trump over Biden: +3 (41-38-8-1) Bloomberg
Pennsylvania: Trump over Biden/Kennedy/West: +9 (43-34-10-1) Bloomberg
Nevada: Trump over Biden: +3 (47-44) Emerson
Nevada: Trump over Biden: +3 (46-43) Bloomberg
Nevada: Trump over Biden/Kennedy/West: +4 (39-35-11-1) Bloomberg
Arizona: Trump over Biden: +2 (46-44) Emerson
Arizona: Trump over Biden: +4 (46-42) Bloomberg
Arizona: Trump over Biden/Kennedy/West: +4 (40-36-11-1) Bloomberg
North Carolina: Trump over Biden: +9 (48-39) Bloomberg
North Carolina: Trump over Biden/Kennedy/West: +9 (42-33-9-2) Bloomberg
Ohio: Trump over Biden: +8 (51-43) Bloomberg
RON’S COMMENT: More bad news for Democrats. Trump is winning five swing states that Biden carried in 2020 (Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona). Michigan, which Biden carried, is leaning his way or even. North Carolina, which Trump carried, is even more for him now. Ohio stays with Trump by about the same margin as 2020.
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
NATIONAL
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
- Joe Biden: 71%
- Dean Phillips: 11%
- Marianne Williamson: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a big lead for renomination. (poll by CNN)
IN THE STATES
Among voters statewide
OHIO SENATE
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Frank LaRose (R): even (46-46)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Matt Dolan (R): +1 (47-46)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Bernie Moreno (R): +1 (47-44)
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers aren’t so comforting for incumbent Brown, although he’s raised more than $21 million so far. LaRose, who is currently leading the Republican primary, is Ohio’s Secretary of State, Dolan is a state senator and Moreno is a businessman and a 2022 Senate candidate. Handicappers rate the race a tossup. (poll by Data for Progress-D)
CAPITOL HILL: JOB APPROVAL RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
% = Approve/disapprove
- Speaker Mike Johnson: 40%/30%
- House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries: 34%/36%
- Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer: 38%/44%
- Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell: 25%/61%
RON’S COMMENT: Despite less than positive national media coverage, Speaker Johnson has the best nationwide job rating of all four major congressional leaders. He’s the only one who is net positive…. Among Republicans, he’s 59% approve/7% disapprove…. The question is whether this is merely a honeymoon, or will it stick?
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule:
Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron