Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 19, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from Sept. 6
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as Sept. 6), putting him at 13 points net-negative.
Among voters statewide
Among all voters
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +1 (50-49) CBS News
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +4 (44-40) Harris
- Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +1 (43-42) Rasmussen
RON’S COMMENT: Trump averages a 1.3-point lead…. The CBS poll finds:
- 64% say a Trump/Biden rematch makes them feel that the political system is broken.
- Only 34% of the electorate believes Biden would finish a second term; 55% think Trump would.
- 43% say only Trump is “physically healthy enough to serve as president”; 16% say only Biden is “physically healthy enough to serve as president”; 12% say both of them are and 29% say neither of them are.
- Voters say the U.S. needs a president who is: tough (67%), caring (66%), no-nonsense (62%), calm (61%) and energetic (58%).
- 63% believe Biden’s leadership style is calm, 61% say predictable, 57% say tolerant, 50% say caring and 35% say no-nonsense.
- 71% believe Trump’s leadership style is provocative, 67% say tough, 65% say energetic 55% say no-nonsense and 55% say entertaining.
- 46% say the Democratic Party goes “too far” on racial diversity and equality, 31% say it’s “about right” and 23% say it doesn’t “go far enough.”
- 37% say their views on abortion make them more likely to vote for Democrats and 29% say their views on abortion make them more likely to vote for Republicans; 34% say it’s not a factor.
- 97% of Trump’s voters say “things were better under Trump” and 75% say they “dislike Joe Biden personally.”
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE OF LAST 6 NATIONWIDE POLLS
Among Republican primary voters nationwide
- Donald Trump: 58%
- Ron DeSantis: 13%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 8%
- Nikki Haley: 5%
- Mike Pence: 4%
- Tim Scott: 3%
- Chris Christie: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump posts a 45-point average lead over second place DeSantis despite his increasingly complex legal troubles…. Question: When does Trump’s lead become so big he can’t be defeated for the nomination? Some say it’s already reached that point; others say wait until December or January…. Haley runs above Pence, Scott and Christie, but it looks as if some of the boost she received from the first debate may be fading.
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE OF LAST 2 NATIONWIDE POLLS
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
- Joe Biden: 66%
- Robert Kennedy, Jr.: 16%
- Marianne Williamson: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden maintains a 50-point lead despite concern about his age and capacity to lead through a second term. While Kennedy remains a major longshot in the Democratic race, he still captures a higher vote percentage (16%) than does every Republican in their nomination contest (2% to 13%) other than Trump.
PERSONAL RATINGS OF GOP CANDIDATES
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/ Unfavorable
- Donald Trump: 43%/57%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 35%/36%
- Nikki Haley: 33%/40%
- Ron DeSantis: 37%/53%
- Mike Pence: 32%/63%
- Tim Scott: 27%/33%
- Chris Christie: 26%/58%
- Doug Burgum: 11%/23%
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers above are among all voters nationwide…. Pence and Christie have higher negative ratings than does Trump among the entire national electorate…. All of the GOP candidates have net negative ratings, although Ramaswamy comes close to breaking even. (poll by Fox News)
Among voters statewide
- Jeff Landry (R): 40%
- Shawn Wilson (D): 24%
- Stephen Waguespack (R): 9%
- Hunter Lundy (I): 4%
- John Schroder (R): 3%
- Sharon Hewitt (R): 2%
- Richard Nelson (R): 1%
RON’S COMMENT: At this point Republican Landry, endorsed by Donald Trump, and Democrat Wilson, endorsed by Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, are most likely to make the runoff. Observers are watching the other candidates (who continue to be largely unknown statewide) to determine if one can catch fire and displace either Landry or Wilson for one of the top two slots; so far, that hasn’t happened. Landry is currently favored to win the runoff. The primary is Oct. 14 with a November 16 runoff. (poll by Gray TV, Mason-Dixon)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron