LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Scott, Ramaswamy Gain – Brown Has Tight Race in Ohio – Tuesday Trivia
Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, July 11, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Same as June 17
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 2 from June 17), putting him at 12 points net-negative.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters statewide
NATIONAL
FLORIDA
Among all voters
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +10 (49-39)
- Ron DeSantis over Joe Biden: +13 (49-36)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden is getting clobbered in Florida in this poll––unable to reach 40%…. Trump carried the state in 2016 and 2020, but Obama carried it in 2008 and 2012. (poll by Fl. Atlantic Univ.)
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
NATIONWIDE
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 56%
- Ron DeSantis: 22%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 5%
- Tim Scott: 4%
- Mike Pence: 4%
- Nikki Haley: 3%
- Chris Christie: 1%
- Asa Hutchinson: 1%
- Larry Elder: 1%
- Doug Burgum: *
RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads the national field 56-41…. It’s hard to find any momentum for DeSantis …. Note that Ramaswamy is running third (albeit distantly) and Scott has nosed ahead of South Carolinia’s other entry, Haley. (poll by Fox News)
FLORIDA
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 50%
- Ron DeSantis: 30%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 4%
- Tim Scott: 3%
- Chris Christie: 2%
- Asa Hutchinson: 2%
- Mike Pence: 2%
- Nikki Haley: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is a disaster for DeSantis. The once king of Florida politics is now running a distant second to Trump in the state. Moreover, 70% of Florida Republicans are not voting for their governor. It looks like it’s time for DeSantis to retool his national campaign. He needs to stop running for governor and start running for president…. Also note: Ramaswamy is running third…. Looks like the more Pence talks, the worse he does. (poll by Fl. Atlantic Univ.)
IOWA
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 44%
- Ron DeSantis: 21%
- Tim Scott: 7%
- Chris Christie: 3%
- Mike Pence: 3%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 3%
- Nikki Haley: 2%
- Asa Hutchinson: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: What’s important about this poll is that 56% of Iowa Republicans are not voting for Trump…. Of those GOP voters who like both Trump and DeSantis, 55% of them vote for Trump and only 25% vote for DeSantis…. Looking for signs of early momentum––Scott is showing movement. Could he eventually become Trump’s major competitor in this first caucus state? (poll by American Greatness)
OHIO
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 59%
- Ron DeSantis: 15%
- Chris Christie: 4%
- Mike Pence: 5%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 3%
- Nikki Haley: 2%
- Asa Hutchinson: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump trounces DeSantis in Ohio, an important state. Note: The poll didn’t include Tim Scott and should have. (poll by E. Carolina Univ.)
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
NATIONWIDE
Among Democratic primary voters
% = Definitely vote for / Might vote for
- Joe Biden: 49% / 36%
- Robert Kennedy, Jr.: 14% / 31%
- Marianne Williamson: 14% / 21%
RON’S COMMENT: Democratic voters nationwide who are definite in their selection give Biden 49% of their votes and the other two contenders get a total of 28%. Note that an impressive 45% of Democrats nationally would “definitely” or “might” vote for Kennedy. (poll by Fox News)
SENATE: 2024
Among voters statewide
OHIO
- Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Matt Dolan (R): +1 (45-44)
- Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Frank LaRose (R): +2 (44-42)
- Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Bernie Moreno (R): +4 (46-42)
RON’S COMMENT: The unabashedly liberal Brown has his work cut out for him in this increasingly red state. Two challengers run him uncomfortably close and a third is within striking distance. Against Dolan, Brown loses Whites 50-39, but wins Blacks 81-7. Brown also wins women 50-36, but Dolan wins men 53-39…. In the Republican Senate primary, LaRose has 17%, Dolan 14% and Moreno 7%.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
In 2016 and 2020, Ohio voted for Trump both times. In 2008 and 2012, Ohio voted for Obama both times. Prior to these elections, when was the last time Ohio voted for the same Democratic presidential candidate in two consecutive general elections?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
In 1992 and 1996, Ohio voted for Bill Clinton.