LUNCHTIME POLITICS: RFK, Jr. – Beshear Leads in Kentucky, Reeves in Mississippi – Tuesday Trivia
Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 10, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 40%
Down 1 from Sept. 25
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (up 3 from Sept. 25), putting him at 16 points net-negative.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters statewide
GENERAL ELECTION
NATIONWIDE
Among all voters
- Joe Biden and Donald Trump: even (42-42-5) I&I/TIPP
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +3 (51-48-12) Marquette
RON’S COMMENT: Biden is struggling to gain a lead against Trump. Keep in mind, too, that in his past two presidential runs, Trump has underpolled. Add another point or two to Trump’s current vote and Biden looks even worse…. The Marquette poll shows “someone else” getting a sizable 12%.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE OF LAST 3 NATIONWIDE POLLS
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 61%
- Ron DeSantis: 12%
- Nikki Haley: 6%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 6%
- Mike Pence: 4%
- Chris Christie: 2%
- Tim Scott: 2%
- Doug Burgum: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: It appears that Trump is tightening his grip on the nomination, despite mounting legal troubles. He leads the field by a wide 61-33 margin…. The battle is now focused on whether Haley can overtake DeSantis for second place. Haley is already running second in New Hampshire, but DeSantis leads her in most other places and Ramaswamy is running about even with Haley…. It should be noted that these numbers are roughly a week old…. The latest Marquette poll shows Trump beating DeSantis 71-28 in a two-way race for the nomination.
From the SurveyUSA national poll of Republican primary voters:
- Trump does 12 points better with younger Republicans (18-49) than with older ones (50+)
- Trump does 3 points better with Hispanic Republicans than with White Republicans.
- Trump does 25 points better with “very conservative” Republicans than with “moderate” ones.
IN THE STATES
Among voters statewide
KENTUCKY GOVERNOR 2023
Among voters statewide
- Gov. Andy Beshear (D) over Daniel Cameron (R): +16 (49-33)
RON’S COMMENT: Good news for Democrats in a red state––incumbent Democratic governor Beshear maintains a solid re-election lead. From the pollster’s report: “Governor Beshear holds a 44% approval rating among Kentucky voters, and a 28% job disapproval; 28% of voters are neutral. President Biden holds a 22% job approval, while 62% of voters disapprove of the job he is doing in the Oval Office; 16% are neutral.” Also: “While Biden is an unpopular figure among Kentucky voters, Beshear has been able to separate himself from the president: he holds a 66% approval rating within his own party, and a 34% approval among both independent and Republican voters.” (poll from Emerson College)
MISSISSIPPI GOVERNOR 2023
Among voters statewide
- Gov. Tate Reeves (R) over Brandon Presley (D): +8 (51-43)
RON’S COMMENT: While Republican Reeves is fairly weak among voters, especially for an incumbent, his state’s conservative leaning is keeping him afloat. There is a huge gender gap: 33% of men support Democrat Presley, while 53% of women do. There is also a big generation gap: Presley wins voters 18-49 by 4 points, but loses those 50+ by 16 points. Reeves has a small lead among independents, 47-42. Reeves’ strongest region is the Gulf Coast and his weakest is the Delta. (poll by Mason-Dixon)
NEW JERSEY SENATE – DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
- Andy Kim: 28%
- Mikie Sherrill: 20%
- Frank Pallone: 6%
- Josh Gottheimer: 6%
- Sen. Robert Menendez: 6%
- Others: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: Stick a fork in Menendez, he’s done. Only 6% of fellow Democrats are voting to re-elect him. Moreover, 78% of Democrats think he should resign…. Kim, 41, is a member of the U.S. House in a district along southern and central New Jersey that includes Philly’s eastern suburbs…. Sherrill is also a member of the U.S. House; her district includes suburbs and exurbs west of New York City. (poll by Data for Progress)
RATING KENNEDY
Among voters nationwide
Robert Kennedy, Jr. rating:
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
- All voters: 51%/37%
- Biden voters: 38%/49%
- Trump voters: 65%/23%
- Independents: 44%/30%
- Liberals: 29%/54%
- Moderates: 55%/26%
- Conservatives: 60%/26%
RON’S COMMENT: At a time when most national politicians have negative ratings, RFK, Jr. rates positively with a majority of voters. As an independent candidate for president now, it’s important to track his public appeal; note that he does much better among Trump voters than Biden voters, and much better among conservatives than liberals. Does this mean he’ll take more votes from Trump than Biden? (poll by The Economist/YouGov)
PERSONAL RATINGS: NAMES IN THE NEWS
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
- Kevin McCarthy: 31%/52%
- Matt Gaetz: 23%/44%
- Robert Menendez: 12%/51%
- Mitch McConnell: 21%/68%
- Chuck Schumer: 34%/48%
- Hakeem Jeffries: 29%/30%
RON’S COMMENT: As you can see, voters nationwide aren’t so happy with these Capitol Hill guys. Only Jeffries comes close to breaking even.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Who was leading the 1968 Democratic presidential nomination race in the September 1967 national Gallup poll of Democratic primary voters?
(answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
Sen. Robert F. Kennedy. He had 39% in the Sept. 1967 Gallup poll. Pres. Lyndon Johnson had 37% and Vice President Hubert Humphrey had 6%. Eugene McCarthy was not in the Democratic nomination race yet. Kennedy didn’t get into the race until after the New Hampshire primary in March 1968 and Humphrey announced his candidacy at the end of April, after Johnson withdrew.