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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Republican Catches Beshear in Kentucky Poll – Trump Leads Biden in Key Swing States – “Yes” Leads on Ohio’s Issue 1


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Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, November 6, 2023

Down 2 from Oct. 25

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 57% today (up 2 from Oct. 25), putting him at 17 points net-negative.

Among voters nationwide and statewide



  • Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +3 (51-48) CBS/YouGov
  • Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +4 (48-44) NYT/Siena

RON’S COMMENT: The CBS/YouGov poll finds that 31% of voters believe Biden’s election in 2024 would “increase peace and stability in the world” and 47% of voters believe Trump’s election in 2024 would “increase peace and stability in the world”…. Ukraine and Russia: 79% of voters believe Biden’s second term policies would “support Ukraine over Russia” only 27% say Trump’s policies would “support Ukraine over Russia” …. Note that these trial heats do not include RFK Jr. or Cornel West.


KEY State Name: Current 2024 trial heat; 2020 election result

  • Georgia: Trump over Biden: +6 (49-43); Biden won by two-tenths of a point in 2020
  • Pennsylvania: Trump over Biden: +4 (48-44); Biden won by 1.9 points in 2020
  • Michigan: Trump over Biden: +5 (48-43); Biden won by 2.8 points in 2020
  • Nevada: Trump over Biden: +11 (52-41); Biden won by 2.4 points in 2020
  • Arizona: Trump over Biden: +5 (49-44); Biden won by three-tenths of a point in 2020
  • Wisconsin: Biden over Trump: +2 (47-45); Biden won by 1.4 points in 2020

RON’S COMMENT: These six state polls are getting a lot of attention––especially from distraught Democrats. They represent six critical swing states, all of which Biden won in 2020. As you can see, Biden is now losing five of these six states. Will these numbers don’t cause Biden to rethink his candidacy? (polls by NYT/Siena)

If you combine the poll samples from all six states, you will find the following:

  • 22% of voters think the country is on the right track, while 67% say wrong track.
  • 71% say Biden is too old to be president (51% of Democrats and 74% of independents agree)
  • 35% say Biden’s policies have helped them personally, while 53% say Biden’s policies have hurt them personally.
  • 51% say Trump’s policies have helped them personally, while 34% say Trump’s policies have hurt them personally.
  • Trump wins men 55-37 and Biden wins women 50-42.
  • Trump wins Whites 54-39, Biden wins Blacks 71-22 and Biden wins Hispanics 50-42.
  • Trump wins Whites without college degrees 62-32 and Biden wins White college grads 51-40.
  • Trump beats Biden on handling the economy 59-37, immigration 53-41, national security 53-41 and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict 50-37.
  • Biden wins on handling abortion 49-40 and protecting democracy 48-45.

Haley’s Comet: While Trump leads Biden in five states, NYT/Siena polling also shows Nikki Haley leading Biden in all six states, and by larger margins than Trump in Arizona (where she wins by 7 points), Michigan (where she wins by 10 points), Pennsylvania (where she wins by 10 points) and Wisconsin (where she wins by 13 points). These are impressive numbers for the former UN ambassador…. Against Biden, Haley does much better than DeSantis in all six states…. Against Biden, Trump does better than DeSantis in Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan. … Looks like DeSantis is losing the electability argument, while Haley is crushing it.


Among Republican primary voters 

  • Donald Trump: 61%
  • Ron DeSantis: 14%
  • Nikki Haley: 8%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy: 5%
  • Chris Christie: 2%
  • Tim Scott: 2%
  • Asa Hutchinson: 1%
  • Doug Burgum: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads the field 61-33. Haley is moving up in key states, but she still hasn’t displaced DeSantis for second place nationwide.

Among voters statewide


  • Dan Cameron (R) over Gov. Andy Beshear (D): +1 (49-48)

RON’S COMMENT: This Emerson poll is causing quite a stir; it shows Republican challenger Cameron overtaking Democratic incumbent Beshear. The previous poll taken by Emerson a month ago had Beshear ahead by 16 points. If these numbers are accurate, it’s an incredible turnaround. Should Cameron pull off an upset, it would be a big win for Republicans and for Trump, who has been a Cameron supporter. The election is tomorrow. (poll by Emerson College)

From the poll report:

  • “Cameron appears to have gained ground by consolidating Republican voters who supported former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election. In October, 54% of Trump supporters supported Cameron; now, as election day approaches, that number has jumped to 79% – a 25-point increase.”
  • “Kentucky voters oppose the current state laws that ban abortion in nearly all cases, with no exception for rape or incest, 55% to 28% who support it; 17% are unsure.”


  • Katie Porter (D): 17%
  • Adam Schiff (D): 16%
  • State Garvey (R): 10%
  • Barbara Lee (D): 9%
  • James Bradley (R): 7%
  • Eric Early (R): 4%

RON’S COMMENT: There is a virtual tie for first place in the California open primary for US Senate…. Note that the major Democrats receive a total of 42% and the major Republicans receive 21%….  Among Democratic voters: Porter gets 26%, Schiff 26% and Lee 14% …. Among Republican voters, it’s Garvey 27%, Bradley 16% and Early 12%…. Lee is getting 33% of Black voters, while Schiff gets 14% and Porter gets 14%…. Porter leads Latino voters with 17%…. Porter, Schiff and Lee are members of the US House; Garvey is a former professional baseball player; Bradley is a businessman and Early is an attorney. This is for the seat previously held by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D). (poll by Berkeley IGS)


Issue 1 is an amendment to the Ohio Constitution which would protect the right to reproductive freedom, including “access to contraception, fertility treatment, continuing one’s own pregnancy, miscarriage care, and abortion.” The amendment would also allow the state to prohibit abortion after fetal viability, unless “it is necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.” If the election was held today, how would you vote on Issue 1? 

Yes: 58%
No: 34%
Undecided: 8%

RON’S COMMENT: 89% of Democrats, 40% of Republicans, 51% of independents, 67% of 18-49-year-olds and 52% of those 50 and older say they will vote YES on Issue 1, which would add an abortion rights amendment to the Ohio state constitution. Both sides have been spending heavily on this issue…. There has been a lot of discussion about the proposition’s wording causing voter confusion. Says Robert Alexander of Ohio Northern University: “The framing of Issue 1 will be critical to its outcome. While we find relatively strong support for abortion rights, the actual ballot language of Issue 1 receives the lowest amount of support among the various ways we asked respondents about the ballot measure. Democrats show almost unanimous support for Issue 1 while Republicans are more divided” …. This poll was completed three weeks ago, so numbers may have changed since then. The referendum vote is tomorrow. (poll by Baldwin Wallace University Ohio Pulse Poll)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron