Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, August 1, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from July 23
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as July 23), putting him 11 points net negative.
Among voters statewide
Among all voters
- Joe Biden and Donald Trump: even (43-43) NYT/Siena
RON’S COMMENT: Looking at the poll’s internals––
- Trump wins men by 14 points and Biden wins women by 12.
- Biden wins Hispanics by a small margin, 41-38.
- Trump wins Catholics by 3, Protestants by 18 and white evangelicals by 62 (not a misprint). Biden wins other religions by 22 and those without religious affiliation by 21.
- Biden leads Democrats 83-7 and independents 42-37; Trump leads Republicans 88-5.
- Among those who did not vote in 2020, Trump wins by 6 points.
- On Trump’s legal issues: 51% of voters believe Trump has committed serious federal crimes and 35% believe he has not; 86% of Democrats, 13% of Republicans and 55% of independents believe Trump has committed serious federal crimes…. 72% of 18-29-year olds and 62% of white college graduates believe he’s committed serious federal crimes.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE OF LAST THREE NATIONWIDE POLLS
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 56%
- Ron DeSantis: 17%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 5%
- Mike Pence: 4%
- Nikki Haley: 3%
- Tim Scott: 3%
- Chris Christie: 2%
- Others: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last three polls has Trump beating the field 56-35––a marked improvement over the July 23 average of 51-40. In this new average, Trump beats DeSantis by 39 points; that’s up from 31 points on July 23…. The only reasonable conclusion is that Trump is being helped by two things: One, many Republicans do not view the indictments as criminal matters; they view them as political attacks by partisan prosecutors. Second, Trump’s opponents are being drowned out by the obsessive media coverage of Trump…. Note that Ramaswamy is third, a distant third, but third nonetheless.
Among Republican primary voters (NYT/Siena poll):
- Trump is 76% favorable/22% unfavorable; DeSantis is 66% favorable/20% unfavorable; Pence is 44%/45%; Robert Kennedy, Jr. is 53% favorable/23% unfavorable. Amazing that “a Kennedy” does much better than Pence among GOP voters.
- Roughly one-fourth of Republican primary voters consider themselves independents, although most of them lean to the GOP.
- 52% of Republican primary voters are only considering voting for Trump and 46% are considering other candidates. This means that a one-on-one primary race (with the right opponent) could still be a problem for Trump.
- In a two-way race, Trump beats DeSantis 62-31.
- Electability argument on its head: 58% of Republican primary voters think Trump would have a better chance of beating Biden than would DeSantis. Only 28% think DeSantis would have a better chance.
Among voters in each state
The five most popular governors in their states are:
Governor (party), state, approval rating
- Phil Scott (R), Vermont: 75%
- Mark Gordon (R), Wyoming: 69%
- Josh Green (D), Hawaii: 64%
- Chris Sununu (R), New Hampshire: 64%
- Andy Beshear (D), Kentucky; 64%
RON’S COMMENT: Scott, the most popular governor, is a Republican in a heavily Democratic state…. Three of the five most popular governors are Republicans and two are Democrats…. Beshear, a Democrat in a Republican-leaning state, faces re-election this November.
Governor (party), state, approval rating
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), Arkansas: 60%
- Glenn Youngkin (R), Virginia: 57%
- Gretchen Whitmer (D), Michigan: 57%
- Doug Burgum (R), North Dakota: 57%
- Gavin Newsom (D), California: 56%
- Ron DeSantis (R), Florida: 54%
- John Bel Edwards (D), Louisiana: 53%
- Tate Reeves (R), Mississippi: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: Govs. DeSantis and Burgum are current presidential candidates. Govs. Youngkin, Sanders, Whitmer and Newsom are seen as possible future national candidates…. There are gubernatorial elections in Louisiana and Mississippi this November; Edwards is term-limited and not running; Reeves is battling for a second term. (These surveys are compiled quarterly by Morning Consult.)
Tomorrow, Aug. 2, will mark the 100th anniversary of a U.S. president taking office. Who was the president?
(see answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
Calvin Coolidge. He became president upon the death of President Warren Harding on Aug. 2, 2023. He took the oath in the early morning hours of Aug. 3, 2023…. Note from the Burlington Free Press:
At 2:47 a.m. on Aug. 3, exactly 100 years after the 30th president of the United States was sworn in at his childhood home in Vermont, visitors will be invited to attend a reenactment of his Oath of Office. It will be an immersive experience at the Calvin Coolidge Homestead where participants can engage with historical reenactors portraying Plymouth villagers remembering Coolidge from childhood into his presidency. There will be a second reenactment later in the day at 2:47 pm. and a reenactment of President Warren Harding’s memorial service and eulogy two days later on Aug. 5.