Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, April 4, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from Saturday
RON’S COMMENT: Biden slightly improves…. Today’s average is based on five polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (down 2 since Saturday), putting him at 8 points net-negative.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
Among Republican voters nationwide
% = InsiderAdvantage-R/ Trafalgar-R/ Yahoo News/ Reuters = Average
- Donald Trump: 57%/56%/52%/48% = 53
- Ron DeSantis: 24%/23%/21%/19% = 22
- Mike Pence: 4%/4%/3%/5% = 4
- Nikki Haley: 5%/4%/5%/6% = 5
- Liz Cheney: */10%/ */3% = 3.3
- Chris Christie: 2%/*/2%/2% = 1.5
- Mike Pompeo: 1%/1%/2%/1% = 1.3
- (All others poll 1% or less)
RON’S COMMENT: All four national polls were taken right after the Trump indictment. The average among Republican primary voters puts Trump ahead of DeSantis 53-22, that’s a hefty 31-point margin. Not long ago (March 14-22), the poll average had Trump ahead of DeSantis 45-34, with a much narrower 11-point margin.
But: While it seems recent events have helped Trump within the Republican electorate, we don’t know whether it has helped or hurt him among swing voters, which he’d need to win the general election. Also: We still don’t know whether Trump’s polling improvement among Republicans is temporary or permanent.
The InsiderAdvantage poll of Republican primary and caucus voters finds:
- 55% of Republicans are more supportive of Trump because of the indictment and 14% are less supportive.
- 79% of Republicans agree with the statement: “Democrat-controlled federal departments and agencies and some state and local agencies, such as district attorneys in large Democratically controlled cities, have actually become “weaponized” against Republicans and conservatives”; 14% of Republicans disagree and 7% are undecided. It’s no wonder that DeSantis raised the issue of “weaponization” in his initial statement on the indictment.
FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
- Ron DeSantis: 44%
- Donald Trump: 39%
- Others: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll was completed right before the indictment…. DeSantis at that point maintained a lead in Florida among Republican primary voters…. Among the entire Florida electorate: DeSantis had a job rating of 59% approve/39% disapprove in his home state…. Biden’s job rating was a dismal 35% approve/60% disapprove…. Trump was 39% favorable and 50% unfavorable in Florida, pre-indictment. (poll by Mason-Dixon)
NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
- Donald Trump: 42%
- Ron DeSantis: 29%
- Chris Sununu: 14%
- Nikki Haley: 4%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 3%.
- Liz Cheney: 2%
- Mike Pence: 1%
- Chris Christie: 1%
- Mike Pompeo: 1%
- Tim Scott: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll of Republican primary voters was taken right before the indictment. The field was beating Trump in this poll 56-42. Sununu is New Hampshire’s GOP governor. Interesting that Ramaswamy was leading Pence, Christie, Pompeo and Scott. (poll by St. Anselm)
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
- Joe Biden: 34%
- Pete Buttigieg: 18%
- Michelle Obama: 14%
- Bernie Sanders: 11%
- Gavin Newsom: 4%
- Kamala Harris: 4%
- Gretchen Whitmer: 4%
- Marianne Williamson: 2%
- Andrew Yang: 2%
- Hillary Clinton: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: The Democratic field beats Biden 60-34 in New Hampshire. Of course, if Biden runs, all these Democrats won’t be running so it’s really just a hypothetical test of strength. (poll by St. Anselm)
IMPACT OF TRUMP INDICTMENT
Among all adults nationwide
Impact on Trump’s favorability
In early December, the CNN poll found Trump’s personal rating to be 31% favorable/60% unfavorable among adult Americans. After the indictment, his rating was 32% favorable/63% unfavorable, representing little change.
Indictment: support, politics, impact on democracy
Do you approve or disapprove of the decision to indict Trump?
- Approve: 60%
- Disapprove: 40%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters approve of the indictment of Trump––and by a wide 20-point margin over those who don’t approve. (poll by CNN)
How big a role, if at all, do you think politics played in the decision to indict Trump?
- Politics played a major role: 52%
- Politics played a minor role: 23%
- Politics played no role at all: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: Despite widespread public support for the indictment, an huge majority of voters (76%) believe politics played some role in it. (poll by CNN)
Do you think the decision to indict Trump:
- Strengthens U.S. democracy: 31%
- Weakens U.S. democracy: 31%
- Has no effect on U.S. democracy: 23%
- Not sure: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: Americans are split on whether the indictment helps or hurts U.S. democracy, 31-31. (poll by CNN)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]