LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Israel and Hamas– Biden Weaker in Four Blue States – Republicans Lead Senate Races in Three Red States – Tuesday Trivia
Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 17, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 2 from a week ago
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (down 1 from a week ago), putting him at 13 points net-negative.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters statewide
GENERAL ELECTION
Among voters statewide
State: New poll results; 2020 election result
- Michigan: Biden over Trump: +1 (44-43); Biden by 2.8
- Minnesota: Biden over Trump: +2 (40-38); Biden by 7.1
- Colorado: Biden over Trump: +4 (42-38); Biden by 8.6
- Illinois: Biden over Trump: +9 (43-34); Biden by 17
- Arkansas: Trump over Biden: +33 (57-24); Trump by 27.6
- North Dakota: Trump over Biden: +37 (54-17); Trump by 33.3
- South Dakota: Trump over Biden: +22 (50-28); Trump by 26.2
- Iowa: Trump over Biden: +10 (44-34); Trump by 8.2
- West Virginia: Trump over Biden: +36 (59-23); Trump by 38.9
- Indiana: Trump over Biden: +19 (48-29); Trump by 16
- Nebraska: Trump over Biden: +16 (47-31); Trump by 19.1
RON’S COMMENT: Biden is now polling weaker than his 2020 vote count in all four states he’s leading. Trump is now polling weaker than his 2020 vote count in three states that he’s leading, but is polling stronger in four states. (polls by Emerson College)
IN THE STATES: 2024
Among voters statewide
WEST VIRGINIA SENATE
- Jim Justice (R) over Sen. Joe Manchin (D): +13 (41-28)
RON’S COMMENT: Not good for Manchin. No wonder he’s thinking about an independent run for president instead of a re-election bid. Handicappers rate the race either a tossup or tilt, lean and safe Republican. (poll by Emerson College)
NORTH DAKOTA SENATE
- Sen. Kevin Cramer (R) over Katrina Christensen (D): +26 (45-19)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Cramer is way ahead of his Democratic opponent, who is an engineering professor and the 2022 Democratic Senate nominee. Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Republican. (poll by Emerson College)
INDIANA SENATE
- Jim Banks (R) over Valerie McCray (D): +9 (31-22-8)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Sen. Mike Braun (R) isn’t running. At this point, Banks (a member of the US House) has a clear lead, although 47% of voters are either undecided or want someone else. McCray is a psychologist and ran for the Senate in 2022. The pollster notes: “A 58% majority of independents are undecided in the hypothetical 2024 Senate race, and for those who made up their mind, they are split with 16% in support of McCray and 15% in support of Banks.” Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Republican. (poll by Emerson College)
ISRAEL AND HAMAS
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of how President Biden is handling the war between Israel and Hamas?
- Approve: 45%
- Disapprove: 50%
RON’S COMMENT: Though Biden does slightly better on this issue than he does overall, his rating is still under water on what is becoming an increasingly bloody and critical conflict…. 77% of Democrats, 16% of Republicans, 37% of independents, 41% of voters under 45 and 47% of voters 45 or older approve of his handling of the situation. Biden does best in the suburbs (52%) and worst among Gen X (38%)…. While 54% of voters say US support for Israel makes the Middle East safer, 40% say it makes it more dangerous. (poll by NPR/PBS/Marist)
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Who was the longest serving Speaker of the U.S. House?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
Sam Rayburn. A Democrat from Texas, he served as Speaker from 1940 to 1947, 1949 to 1953 and 1955 to 1961.