Post Single Page

LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Haley Leads Biden  – Chicago, Mississippi, California – Ukraine – Abortion


In Insights Posted

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, February 24, 2023

Up 1 from Saturday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (down 1 from Saturday), putting him at 6 points net-negative.

Among voters nationwide


  • Nikki Haley over Joe Biden: +4 (45-41) Rasmussen

RON’S COMMENT: The newly minted GOP presidential candidate leads the incumbent president. That’s good for Haley, who needs to show her electability, that she can beat Biden and Trump can’t.

SENATE: 2024
Among voters statewide


  • Adam Schiff: 22%
  • Katie Porter: 20%
  • Barbara Lee: 6%
  • Ro Khanna: 4%
  • Other: 9%
  • Undecided: 39%

RON’S COMMENT: The race to fill the seat now held by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) starts off as a two-way battle between Schiff and Porter, both are Democrats. …Porter beats Schiff among the hard left, 31% to 20%. Schiff beats Porter among moderates, 22% to 10%…. Note that undecided is very high…. (poll by UC-Berkeley/LA Times)

Among voters citywide

  • Paul Vallas: 33%
  • Brandon Johnson: 20%
  • Mayor Lori Lightfoot: 18%
  • Chuy Garcia: 13%

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Lightfoot has slipped to third place in this poll. She’s been in a tough battle with Johnson for a runoff slot against Vallas, who continues to lead the field. Other candidates are in single digits…. The election is Tuesday and the runoff will be April 4. (poll by M3 Consultants)

Among voters statewide


  • Brandon Presley (D) over Gov. Tate Reeves (R): +4 (47-43)

RON’S COMMENT: This is something you don’t often see, a Democrat leading a statewide poll in Mississippi…. The survey shows GOP incumbent Reeves has been hurt by the TANF/Brett Favre/welfare funds scandal. It also finds that 55% of voters think the state is on the wrong track, while 34% think it’s moving in the right direction…. The poll was conducted for the Southern Poverty Law Center and the New Southern Majority IE PAC, both lean left. (poll by Tulchin Research)

Among voters nationwide

Do you think Democrats have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if Joe Biden is the party’s nominee, or if someone else is the party’s nominee? 

  • Joe Biden: 50%
  • Someone else: 45%

Do you think Republicans have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if Donald Trump is the party’s nominee, or if someone else is the party’s nominee? 

  • Donald Trump: 42%
  • Someone else: 54%

RON’S COMMENT: Democrats have greater confidence in Biden’s electability than Republicans have in Trump’s (50% vs. 42%)…. For Biden, that’s an improvement since October 2021, when only 36% of Democrats said he’d have the best chance to win…. For Trump, that’s a decline since October 2021, when 50% of Republicans said he’d have the best chance to win…. It should be noted that only 28% of Republicans who are college graduates say Trump would be the most electable Republican; 50% of noncollege graduates say so. (poll by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist)

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/ Unfavorable

  • Nikki Haley: 39%/ 38%
  • Ron DeSantis: 48%/ 39%
  • Tim Scott: 35%/ 21%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 39%/46%
  • Kyrsten Sinema: 24%/ 40%
  • John Fetterman: 37%/ 36%

RON’S COMMENT: The numbers above are among all voters nationwide.

  • Among only Republicans: Haley is 53%/20%, DeSantis is 71%/16% and Scott is 48%/11%.
  • Among only Democrats: AOC is 65%/15%, Sinema is 29%/38%, and Fetterman is 58%/12%.

Among voters nationwide

In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, who do you sympathize with more? 

  • Russia: 5%
  • Ukraine: 75%
  • Neither: 15%

RON’S COMMENT: 80% of Democrats and 67% of Republicans favor Ukraine…. Only 4% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans favor Russia…. 9% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans say neither…. This poll also finds:

  • 71% of voters say the conflict is important to them.
  • 27% think Ukraine is winning and 20% say Russia is winning.
  • 31% think Ukraine will eventually win, while 26% say Russia will win.
  • Putin’s rating among U.S. voters is 12% favorable/81% unfavorable.
  • Zelensky’s rating among U.S. voters is 64% favorable/22% unfavorable. (poll by The Economist/YouGov)

Among adults nationwide

The following excerpt is from the nationwide PRRI American Values Atlas survey report, which was based on a sample of nearly 23,000 U.S. adults.

Party Affiliation

  • Just under four in ten Republicans say that abortion should be legal in most or all cases (36% across 2022), while 63% say it should be illegal in most or all cases. Support for legal abortion among Republicans has mostly wavered between 30% and 40% since 2010, while support for abortion being illegal has mostly wavered between 60% and 70% since 2010.
  • Among Republicans, belief that abortion should be illegal in all cases has declined: in September 2021, 21% of Republicans said abortion should be illegal in all cases, compared to 14% who said the same in December 2022, after the Dobbs decision. Prior to 2022, roughly two in ten Republicans opposed abortion in all cases, a share that had held steady since at least 2010.
  • Republican women (17%) are about as likely as Republican men (14%) to say abortion should be illegal in all cases. However, in March 2022, 20% of Republican women believed abortion should be illegal in all cases, compared to 15% who said the same in December. Republican men’s attitudes did not shift significantly during the same time period (15% in March, 13% in December).
  • Nearly nine in ten Democrats want abortion to be legal in most or all cases (86% across 2022), including nearly half of Democrats (48%) who say abortion should be legal in all cases. Notably, however, support for abortion’s legality in most or all cases has gone up among Democrats, from 71% in 2010.
  • Throughout 2022, attitudes among Democrats overall remained relatively steady. However, the share of Democratic women who said abortion should be legal in all cases increased slightly, from 46% in March to 52% in December, while the share of Democratic men who said the same remained steady throughout 2022.
  • Views on abortion among independents generally mirror those of the country as a whole. Across 2022, 68% of independents said abortion should be legal in most or all cases, while 30% said it should be illegal in most or all cases. Views about abortion legality among both independent men and women remained relatively steady through the year.

Religious Tradition

  • Majorities of most religious groups say that abortion should be legal in most or all cases. White evangelical Protestants (27%), Jehovah’s Witnesses (27%) Latter-day Saints (32%), and Hispanic Protestants (44%) are the only major religious groups in which less than half of adherents say that abortion should be legal in most or all cases.
  • By contrast, majorities of religiously unaffiliated Americans (85%), Unitarian Universalists (85%), Jewish Americans (79%), Buddhists (78%), Black Protestants (72%), other Catholics of color (71%), Hindus (69%), white mainline Protestants (68%), Muslims (66%), white Catholics (62%), Hispanic Catholics (61%), and other Protestants of color (53%) say that abortion should be legal in most or all cases.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron