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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: FBI – Senators’ Ratings – Virginia Poll – Biden and the Economy


In Insights Posted


Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, August 4, 2023

Down 1 from Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (up 1 from Tuesday), putting him at 13 points net negative.


Among voters statewide


Among all voters statewide

  • Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (43-40)
  • Glenn Youngkin (R) over Joe Biden (D): +7 (44-37)

RON’S COMMENT: In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Virginia by 10 points. This poll shows a closer race for 2024, with a 3-point Biden lead. This isn’t good for Biden; he should be doing better here…. The poll also finds that Virginia’s Republican Gov. Youngkin beats Biden by 7 points. Perhaps Republicans should take a look at Youngkin as a presidential possibility; he’s a conservative who keeps demonstrating broad appeal in tough settings. (poll by VCU)

Among all voters statewide

  • Joe Biden and Donald Trump: even (44-44)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden won crucial Michigan last time by a small margin. This poll has the state tied. Even worse for Biden, when you add Green Party candidate Cornell West to the race, Trump then leads 43-41-4. (poll by Emerson)


Among Republican voters statewide

  • Donald Trump: 44%
  • Ron DeSantis: 20%
  • Tim Scott: 9%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy: 5%
  • Nikki Haley: 4%
  • Mike Pence: 3%
  • Chris Christie: 1%
  • Doug Burgum: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads DeSantis by a wide 24-point margin in Iowa, but he barely leads the whole field, 44-43. (poll by NYT/Siena)

Among Republican primary voters statewide

  • Donald Trump: 61%
  • Ron DeSantis: 13%
  • Mike Pence: 7%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy: 4%
  • Nikki Haley: 3%
  • Tim Scott: 2%
  • Chris Christie: 2%
  • Doug Burgum: 1%
  • Asa Hutchinson: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump romps in Michigan, leading the field 61-33. (poll by Emerson)


Among Democratic primary voters statewide

  • Joe Biden: 65%
  • Marianne Williamson: 11%
  • Robert Kennedy, Jr.: 5%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Biden trouncing his opponents. What’s interesting here is that Williamson, who is getting virtually no attention, is running ahead of Kennedy, who has been getting a lot of attention. (poll by Emerson)

Among voters nationwide

AGREE OR DISAGREE: Donald Trump should be disqualified from running for president because of the criminal charges against him?

  • Agree: 59%
  • Disagree: 32%
  • Don’t know: 8%

RON’S COMMENT: 32% of Republicans and 64% of independents agree that ‘Trump should be disqualified from running for president because of the criminal charges against him.” (poll by Reuters/Ipsos)

AGREE OR DISAGREE: Former President Donald Trump should NOT run for president again in 2024?

  • Agree: 65%
  • Disagree: 26%
  • Don’t know: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: 44% of Republicans and 67% of independents agree that “Trump should NOT run for president again in 2024.” (poll by Reuters/Ipsos)

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling…. 

% = Approve/ Disapprove

  • The economy: 37%/ 63%
  • Protecting democracy in America: 44%/ 55%
  • Inflation: 30%/ 70%

Generally speaking, do you have more confidence in President Biden or in the Republicans in Congress to deal with the major issues facing the country today? 

  • President Biden: 45%
  • Republicans in Congress: 54%

RON’S COMMENT: This CNN poll is bad news for Biden. It shows he’s still doing poorly on the economy and inflation, despite release of improved economic data. It also shows that most voters have not fully bought into his push to protect “democracy in America.” Perhaps worst, Republicans in Congress are beating him on handling issues in general…. Also: This poll shows that 71% of voters have changed the groceries they buy because of higher prices and 70% have cut back on extras and entertainment to afford necessities…. A new national Marist poll shows that 55% of voters believe Biden’s decisions as president have weakened the U.S. economy, while 42% think they have strengthened it. (poll by CNN)

Among voters nationwide

Do you have a great deal of confidence, quite a lot, not very much confidence, or no confidence at all in the FBI? 

  • A great deal of confidence/Quite a lot of confidence: 51%
  • Not very much confidence/No confidence at all: 48%

RON’S COMMENT: Voters are almost evenly split on the FBI…. 75% of Democrats, 34% of Republicans and 44% of independents have a great deal of confidence/quite a lot of confidence in the Bureau. (poll by Marist)

Among voters in each state

The 10 most popular U.S. senators in their states are:

Senator (party), state, approval rating

  • John Barrasso (R), Wyoming: 70%
  • Brian Schatz (D), Hawaii: 65%
  • Mazie Hirono (D), Hawaii: 63%
  • John Thune (R), South Dakota: 63%
  • Bernie Sanders (I), Vermont: 63%
  • Mike Rounds (R), South Dakota: 62%
  • Angus King (I), Maine: 62%
  • Dan Sullivan (R), Alaska: 61%
  • Peter Welch (D), Vermont: 61%
  • Cynthia Lummis (R), Wyoming: 60%

RON’S COMMENT: Five of the 10 most popular senators are Republicans, three are Democrats and two are independents who caucus with Democrats. (These surveys are conducted quarterly by Morning Consult)

Other notable senators:

Senator (party), state, approval rating

  • Mitt Romney (R), Utah: 48%
  • Ted Cruz (R), Texas: 47%
  • Rick Scott (R), Florida: 47%
  • Tammy Baldwin (D), Wisconsin: 46%
  • John Fetterman (D), Pennsylvania: 44%
  • Kyrsten Sinema (I), Arizona: 42%
  • Joe Manchin (D), West Virginia: 39%
  • Mitch McConnell (R), Kentucky: 32%

RON’S COMMENT: Manchin, a Democrat, and Sinema, a Democrat-turned-independent, have displayed independence from the Democratic Party’s agenda; it doesn’t appear to have helped either at home. Both face re-election races next year…. Baldwin, Cruz and Scott also face re-election in 2024…. McConnell is the least popular senator at home. (These surveys are conducted quarterly by Morning Consult)

Among voters nationwide

Thinking about the results of the 2020 presidential election, do you think that Joe Biden legitimately won enough votes to win the presidency, or not? 

  • Yes, Biden legitimately won enough votes to win the presidency: 61%
  • No, Biden did NOT legitimately win enough votes to win the presidency: 38%

RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters believe Biden legitimately won, but that majority has slipped since January 2021…. Only 29% of Republicans say Biden legitimately won and 69% say he didn’t. (poll by CNN)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron