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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Everybody’s Unpopular – Louisiana Governor, California Senate – Biden Negative on Issues

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Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, July 15, 2023

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Same as Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (up 1 from Tuesday), putting him at 13 points net-negative.

PRESIDENT: 2024 
Among voters statewide

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION

NATIONWIDE AVERAGE OF LAST THREE POLLS
Among Republican primary voters 

Donald Trump: 53%
Ron DeSantis: 20%
Mike Pence: 5%
Vivek Ramaswamy: 5%
Nikki Haley: 3%
Tim Scott: 3%
Chris Christie: 2%
Asa Hutchinson: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads the national field in this new average by 53-40. Note that longshot Ramaswamy is tied for third place.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY
Among Republican primary voters 

Donald Trump: 39%
Ron DeSantis: 15%
Chris Christie: 7%
Tim Scott: 6%
Nikki Haley: 5%
Doug Burgum: 3%
Asa Hutchinson: 1%
Mike Pence: 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump ties the field 39-39. Christie is third, Scott fourth and Haley fifth. Note that Burgum is ahead of Pence. (poll by American Greatness)

CALIFORNIA PRIMARY
Among Republican primary voters 

Donald Trump: 50%
Ron DeSantis: 24%
Mike Pence: 6%
Tim Scott: 5%
Nikki Haley: 3%
Liz Cheney: 3%
Chris Christie: 3%
Vivek Ramaswamy: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: California may be a Democratic state in general elections, but it still has a big haul of delegates at the Republican convention. (poll by PPIC)

GOVERNOR: LOUISIANA 2023 
Among voters statewide

OPEN PRIMARY
Jeff Landry (R): 30%
Shawn Wilson (D): 28%
John Schroder (R): 6%
Hunter Lundy (I): 5%
Stephen Waguespack (R): 5%
Sharon Hewitt (R): 4%
Richard Nelson (R): 1%

RON’S COMMENT: This race will likely go into a runoff. At this point Republican Landry, endorsed by Donald Trump, and Democrat Wilson, endorsed by Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, are most likely to make the runoff. Observers are watching the other candidates to determine if one will catch fire and displace either Landry or Wilson for one of the top two slots; so far, that hasn’t happened––but there’s still time and the race has yet to shift into high gear. The first primary is Oct. 14 with a November runoff. (poll by BDPC/Citizens for a New Louisiana)

SENATE: CALIFORNIA 
Among voters statewide

OPEN PRIMARY
Katie Porter (D): 19%
Adam Schiff (D): 16%
Barbara Lee (D): 13%
Eric Early (R): 7%
James P. Bradley (R): 6%
Sarah Liew (R): 5%
Jonathan Reiss (R): 4%
Others: 21%

RON’S COMMENT: Porter leads the open primary with a small margin over Schiff. Lee is close behind in third place. All three are Democrats and members of the U.S. House…. Republicans, combined, are polling 27%…. If the eventual winner is one of the current top three Democrats in this poll, it will likely move the seat to the left of where it is now with incumbent Dianne Feinstein (D). (poll by PPIC)

PERSONAL RATINGS OF NATIONAL CANDIDATES
Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/ Unfavorable
Joe Biden: 44%/ 53%
Donald Trump: 40%/ 58%
Kamala Harris: 41%/ 55%
Ron DeSantis: 39%/ 51%
Chris Christie: 19%/ 62%

RON’S COMMENT: Note that these ratings are among all voters nationwide––and note that all the names tested are unpopular to some degree. (poll by The Economist/YouGov)

BIDEN ISSUE APPROVAL
Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling….

% = Approve/Disapprove
The economy: 44%/ 50%
Inflation: 35%/ 60%
Immigration: 30%/ 61%
Education: 41%/ 47%
Healthcare: 43%/47%
Civil rights: 43%/ 45%
Crime: 37%/ 53%

RON’S COMMENT: Biden polls well below 50% on all these issues. Immigration, inflation and crime remain his worst. (poll by The Economist/YouGov)

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron