LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Economy vs. Inflation Issue – Dueling Polls – Ramaswamy Moves Up – Michigan Senate
Your Daily Polling Update for Sunday, July 23, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from July 15
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as July 15), putting him at 12 points net-negative.
- Economy vs. inflation: The new Monmouth poll shows Biden’s handling of the economy rates 47% approve/48% disapprove. His handling of inflation is much worse––34% approve/62% disapprove. Interesting how voters make such a distinction on overlapping issues. (This is why Republicans talk more about inflation than the economy.)
- Crime problem: Independents are usually the key to winning general elections. That’s why Biden’s awful rating for his handling of the crime issue among independents in the Yahoo News poll (21% approve/56% disapprove) is such a problem for him.
PRESIDENT: 2024
GENERAL ELECTION
NATIONWIDE
Among all voters
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +5 (49-44) Quinnipiac
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4 (47-43) Yahoo News
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +5 (45-40) Harvard-Harris
Joe Biden over Ron DeSantis: +4 (46-42) Yahoo News
Ron DeSantis over Joe Biden: +1 (41-40) Harvard-Harris
Donald Trump over Kamala Harris: +9 (47-38) Harvard-Harris
RON’S COMMENT: A case of dueling polls: While Biden maintains a lead in Quinnipiac and Yahoo News polls over Trump, the Harvard-Harris poll has Trump and DeSantis beating Biden…. The Harvard-Harris poll shows Trump winning independents over Biden by a wide, and hard-to-believe, margin of 45-27…. Harvard-Harris finds that 24% of Democrats and 71% of independents think Biden is not mentally fit for office. It also finds that 43% of Democrats and 75% of independents think Biden is showing he is too old to be president.
MICHIGAN
Among all voters statewide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (45-43)
Joe Biden over Ron DeSantis: +13 (44-31)
RON’S COMMENT: This is terrible news for DeSantis––Biden beats him by a big margin in a key swing state, while Trump runs Biden much closer. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Michigan by nearly 3 points. (poll by Mitchell Research)
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE OF 3 MOST RECENT NATIONWIDE POLLS
Among Republican primary voters
Donald Trump: 51%
Ron DeSantis: 20%
Vivek Ramaswamy: 5%
Mike Pence: 5%
Nikki Haley: 4%
Tim Scott: 3%
Chris Christie: 2%
Doug Burgum: 1%
Asa Hutchinson: *
RON’S COMMENT: Trump is beating the field 51-40 nationwide…. Worth watching: This poll average shows Ramaswamy tying Pence for third place. It should be noted that Ramaswamy received 10% in one poll (Harvard-Harris), which brought up his average; he received 2%/3% in the other two polls. Ramaswamy’s performance in the Harvard-Harris poll has raised some eyebrows.
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE OF 3 MOST RECENT NATIONWIDE POLLS
Among Democratic primary voters
Joe Biden: 66%
Robert Kennedy, Jr.: 13%
Marianne Williamson: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden maintains a strong average lead over the field, 66-18.
SENATE: 2024
Among voters statewide
MICHIGAN
Elissa Slotkin (D) over Mike Rogers (R): +6 (44-38)
Elissa Slotkin (D) over Peter Meijer (R): +13 (41-28)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Slotkin leads both Republicans in the race to elect a replacement for retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). However––when short bios are read about each candidate, Slotkin’s lead dwindles over Rogers to 1 point, 42-41, and her lead over Meijer dwindles to 7 points, 42-35. (poll by Mitchell Research)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron