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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Dueling Polls, What to Believe? – Trump’s GOP Lead Holds


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Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 25, 2023

Down 1 from Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 2 from Tuesday), putting him at 12 points net-negative.

Among voters statewide


Among all voters 

  • Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +10 (52-42) Washington Post/ABC
  • Donald Trump and Joe Biden: even (46-46) NBC News
  • Nikki Haley over Joe Biden: +5 (46-41) NBC News
  • Joe Biden over Ron DeSantis: +1 (46-45) NBC News
  • Donald Trump over Joe Biden and Libertarian/No Labels/Green candidates: +3 (39-36-5-5-4) NBC News

RON’S COMMENT: The Washington Post/ABC poll shows a big lead for Trump, so big that the survey’s sponsors, themselves, say it’s “probably an outlier.” They also discuss factors why the results may be different from other polling­, including “question order,” “message-sending” and the poll’s “unusual makeup” of voter coalitions supporting Trump and Biden. With all these issues, one wonders why they didn’t just re-run the poll?

The NBC News poll shows Trump and Biden tied, which is similar to most other polls… In June, Biden was leading Trump in this poll by 4 points, now he’s tied…. Importantly, this poll shows Haley doing best against Biden. DeSantis started his campaign with an electability argument––he had a better chance to beat Biden than Trump––but new polls are showing Trump doing slightly better than DeSantis, and Haley doing better than both of them…. Nuggets from the NBC News poll:

  • 59% of all voters say Biden’s age, mental and physical health is a “major concern” for them and an additional 15% say it’s a “minor concern”––for a total of 74% concernedThis is a brutal number for Biden.
  • 34% of all voters say Trump’s age, mental and physical health is a “major concern” for them and an additional 13% say it’s a “minor concern”––for a total of 47% concerned.
  • 52% of all voters say Trump’s indictments are a “major concern” for them and an additional 10% say they’re a “minor concern”––for a total of 62% concerned.
  • Turnout indicator? 75% of Republicans and 68% of Democrats have high interest in the 2024 election. This is often seen as an indicator of future voter turnout. Also not good for Democrats: Only 38% of 18-34-year-olds, 51% of Latino voters and 53% of Black voters have high interest in the 2024 election. On the partisan flip side, 87% of seniors and 73% of White voters have high interest.
  • Libertarian/No Labels/Green candidates draw a total of 14% of the vote in a Trump vs. Biden race; combined, they’re taking a few more points from Biden than from Trump.
  • 38% of Biden’s voters say their vote is “more for Joe Biden” and 58% say it’s “more against Donald Trump.”
  • 57% of Trump’s voters say their vote is “more for Donald Trump” and 36% say it’s “more against Joe Biden.”
  • Only 28% of voters say they’re satisfied with the U.S. economy.
  • 59% of Democrats want a Democratic candidate to challenge Joe Biden for the nomination. Ouch!
  • 58% of Republicans say the “Republican Party should continue to be led by Donald Trump.”


Among Republican primary voters

  • Donald Trump: 57%
  • Ron DeSantis: 14%
  • Nikki Haley: 5%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy: 5%
  • Mike Pence: 5%
  • Chris Christie: 4%
  • Tim Scott: 3%
  • Doug Burgum: 1%
  • Asa Hutchinson: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s average lead over DeSantis is a mammoth 43 points. Three candidates are tied for third place.


Among Democratic primary voters 

  • Joe Biden: 62%
  • Robert Kennedy, Jr.: 15%
  • Marianne Williamson: 4%

RON’S COMMENT: Speaking of dueling polls––Rasmussen shows Kennedy with 25% of the Democratic vote, the highest he’s ever received. On the other hand, Yahoo has Kennedy at 7%, the lowest he’s ever received. Emerson has him at 14%, closer to his 5-month average.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron