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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Chicago Mayor – Banking Confidence – Biden’s Issue Approval – New Prez Polls


In Insights Posted

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, April 1, 2023

Same as March 21

RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s negative is up…. Today’s average is based on four polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% (+2 since March 21 and +4 since March 15), putting him now at 11 points net-negative.

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Among voters nationwide

Among voters nationwide

  • Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (45-43) Civitas/Cygnal-R
  • Joe Biden over Mike Pence: +2 (41-39) Civitas/Cygnal-R
  • Ron DeSantis over Joe Biden: +3 (44-41) Civitas/Cygnal-R
  • Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (48-46) Quinnipiac
  • Ron DeSantis over Joe Biden: +2 (48-46) Quinnipiac

RON’S COMMENT: This polling was taken before the indictment. It has Biden beating Trump and Pence, but DeSantis beating Biden. Also:Honesty: The Quinnipiac poll shows that 65% of voters do NOT think Trump is honest, 54% do NOT think Biden is honest and 40% do NOT think DeSantis is honest. Since 2016, Quinnipiac has reported 36 polls in which they tested voter perceptions of Trump’s honesty, and 65% saying he’s NOT honest is the second highest ever; the highest was 66% in July of 2020.


Among Republican primary voters 

% = Fox News/Quinnipiac = Average

  • Donald Trump: 54%/ 47% = 50.5
  • Ron DeSantis: 24%/ 33% = 28.5
  • Mike Pence: 6%/ 5% = 5.5
  • Nikki Haley: 3%/ 4% = 3.5
  • Liz Cheney: 3%/ 1% = 2
  • Kristi Noem: 1%/ 2% = 1.5
  • Chris Christie: 1%/ 1% = 1
  • Chris Sununu: 1%/ 1% = 1
  • Mike Pompeo: 1%/ 1% = 1
  • Glenn Youngkin: */ 1%
  • Tim Scott: * / 1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy: 1% / *


RON’S COMMENT: Both polls were taken before the indictment. The average gives us a good pre-indictment GOP nomination baseline…. The Fox poll showed DeSantis winning second choice votes with 32%, followed by Trump at 14%, Pence 12%, Haley 8% and Pompeo 6%…. The Quinnipiac poll has Trump leading DeSantis 52-42 in a two-way race.


Among Democratic primary voters

[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS] In 2024, would you like to see someone else as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee or would you rather keep Joe Biden as the nominee?

  • Would like to see someone else: 52%
  • Would keep Biden as the nominee: 44%
  • Depends: 4%

RON’S COMMENT: Most Democrats continue to prefer someone other than Biden for the nomination.

Among voters citywide

  • Paul Vallas over Brandon Johnson: +5 (46-41) Emerson
  • Paul Vallas over Brandon Johnson: +2 (46-44) Victory Research
  • Average = Vallas +3.5


RON’S COMMENT: The election is Tuesday. Polls continue to be tight. Turnout is key…. Vallas is a former CEO of Chicago Public Schools and budget director for Mayor Richard M. Daley…. Johnson is a Cook County Commissioner and Chicago Teachers Union activist…. Incumbent mayor Lori Lightfoot ran a weak third in the first round, eliminating her from the runoff…. The Victory Research poll shows:

  • Vallas wins Whites 72-22 and voters over 60-years-old by 51-43.
  • Johnson wins Blacks 74-16 and voters 18-30-years-old by 50-39.
  • Vallas leads Latinos 46-41.
  • Brandon wins progressives 69-20.
  • Vallas wins moderates 67-25 and conservatives 88-1.


Among voters nationwide

% = Approve/Disapprove

  • National security: 45%/53%
  • Foreign policy: 44%/54%
  • Border security: 36%/60%
  • The economy: 35%/64%

RON’S COMMENT: Biden is well below 50% on everything; border security and the economy continue to be heavy millstones around his neck. (poll by Fox News)

Among voters nationwide

Public concern: How concerned are you about… the banking system?

  • Extremely concerned: 31%
  • Very concerned: 38%
  • Not very concerned: 23%
  • Not concerned at all: 6%


RON’S COMMENT: More than two-thirds of the national electorate (69%) is either very or extremely concerned about the banking system. That level of concern is high––roughly the same as voter concern over gun laws, what’s taught in public schools, border security and a possible war between the U.S. and China…. But: While most voters are concerned about the banking system in general, only 12% are concerned about the stability of their own bank. (poll by Fox News)

Approve of handling bank failures: Do you approve or disapprove of how the federal government is responding to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank?

  • Approve: 44%
  • Disapprove: 48%

Among voters nationwide

% = Approve/Disapprove

  • Sec. of the Treasury Janet Yellen: 32%/41%
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: 27%/39%
  • Speaker Kevin McCarthy: 36%/41%
  • House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries: 32%/24%

RON’S COMMENT: Jeffries has the only net positive rating. (poll by Quinnipiac)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron