Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, April 25, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from April 15
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (up 1 from April 15), putting him at 10 points net-negative.
Among voters statewide
Among all voters
- Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +3 (48-45) WSJ
- Ron DeSantis over Joe Biden: +3 (48-45) WSJ
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers are good for DeSantis, he’s leading Biden while Trump is losing to Biden. In this Wall Street Journal poll:
- Trump is seen as a more effective Commander-in-Chief than Biden 43-41
- Trump is seen as more likely NOT to back down against foreign enemies than Biden 52-36
- Biden is seen as more likely to work with both parties than Trump 49-27
- Biden is seen as more likely to represent the U.S. well on the international stage than Trump 46-43
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
Among Republican primary voters (based on last three polls)
- Donald Trump: 49.7%
- Ron DeSantis: 25%
- Mike Pence: 4.7%
- Nikki Haley: 4%
- Tim Scott: 2.3%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 2%
- Tim Hutchinson: 1%
- Glenn Youngkin: 0.3%
- Chris Sununu: 0.3%
- Kristi Noem: 0.3%
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last three polls gives Trump a solid 24.7-point lead over DeSantis. But: The four previous polls taken right after the New York indictment showed Trump with a 34.5-point lead––which raises the question: Is Trump’s post-indictment bump dissipating?
SHOULD THEY RUN?
Among voters nationwide
Biden: Do you think Joe Biden should run for president?
- Biden should run: 26%
- Biden should not run: 70%
Trump: Do you think Donald Trump should run for president?
- Trump should run: 35%
- Trump should not run: 60%
RON’S COMMENT: Big majorities of all voters want neither Biden nor Trump to run. Biden’s numbers are worse than Trump’s here because fewer Democrats want Biden to run than Republicans want Trump to run.
Among voters nationwide
% = Positive/Neutral/Negative
- Joe Biden: 38%/13%/48%
- Donald Trump: 34%/13%/53%
- Republican Party: 33%/23%/43%
- Democratic Party: 36%/18%/42%
- MAGA Movement: 24%/15%/45%
- Black Lives Matter Movement: 38%/20%/40%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s ratings are better than Trump’s and the Democratic rating is slightly better than the Republican rating. But everybody’s negative is higher than their positive rating. (NBC News)…. Ratings from the new WSJ poll, among all voters nationwide, show:
- Biden is 41% favorable/57% unfavorable
- Trump is 39% favorable/57% unfavorable
- Kamala Harris is 35% favorable/58% unfavorable
- Kevin McCarthy is 32% favorable/46% unfavorable
- DeSantis’s rating is 43% favorable/45% unfavorable
- Pence’s rating is 29% favorable/60% unfavorable
- Haley’s rating is 31% favorable/38% unfavorable
RON’S COMMENT: Note that VP Harris has a negative rating among all voters that is higher than both Biden’s and Trump’s. Former VP Pence doesn’t do well either; his negative is 60%.
CONSIDER CANDIDATES FOR GOP NOMINATION
Among Republican voters nationwide
[Among Republican voters] Now regardless of who you are voting for today, please tell me whether you would CONSIDER or NOT CONSIDER voting for each of the following candidates in the Republican Presidential primary or caucus. If you don’t know enough about the person to say one way or the other, just say so. Definitely consider
- Trump: 64%
- Probably consider Trump: 17%
- TOTAL CONSIDER: 82%
- Definitely consider DeSantis: 58%
- Probably consider DeSantis: 25%
- TOTAL CONSIDER: 83%
RON’S COMMENT: Even though DeSantis has weakened lately in trial heats against Trump, an overwhelming 83% of Republicans are still open to consider voting for him for the nomination. That compares to 82% who are open to consider voting for Trump. The numbers above don’t add up because of rounding. (poll by WSJ)
In the 2020 general election, how many states did Joe Biden win and how many states did Donald Trump win?
(see answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
Biden and Trump each won 25 states. (Biden won 25 states as well as DC and one congressional district in Nebraska. Trump won 25 states as well as one congressional district in Maine.)