LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Abortion – Mississippi, West Virginia – Biden, Trump Tie
Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 6, 2023
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Down 2 from Aug. 30
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (up 3 from Aug. 30), putting his rating 14 points net-negative.
PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters statewide
GENERAL ELECTION
NATIONWIDE
Among all voters
- Joe Biden and Donald Trump: even (46-46) WSJ
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden and others: +1 (40-39-3) WSJ
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows a very tight race; Trump noses ahead when Green and Libertarian candidates are included…. Also: The latest Economist poll shows a generic Democratic candidate beats a generic Republican candidate 42-41, with 15% not sure.
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
AVERAGE OF LAST FIVE NATIONWIDE POLLS
Among Republican primary voters
- Donald Trump: 54%
- Ron DeSantis: 15%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 7%
- Nikki Haley: 6%
- Mike Pence: 5%
- Chris Christie: 3%
- Tim Scott: 2%
- Asa Hutchinson: 1%
- Doug Burgum: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump maintains a big lead with DeSantis a distant second; Ramaswamy and Haley follow.
Nuggets from new CNN poll:
- 30% of Republican primary voters thought Ramaswamy won the last debate, while 28% thought DeSantis did; 20% said Haley and 8% said Pence. (Also: The new Economist poll shows top debate performers to be 18% for Ramaswamy, 14% for Haley, 11% for DeSantis and 2% for Pence.)
- % of Republican primary voters who say they’re either currently supporting or would consider supporting the following candidates: Trump 81%, DeSantis 78%, Haley 63%, Scott 63%, Ramaswamy 58%, Pence 50%, Hutchinson 36%, Christie 33%. Note that 19% say they would not support Trump under any circumstances for the nomination.
- Among GOP primary voters, Trump wins handling the situation in Ukrainewith 63% and Haley is second with 8%.
- Trump wins handling the economy with 69% and DeSantis is second with 9%.
- Trump wins handling the immigration with 65% and DeSantis is second with 13%.
- Trump wins handling crime and safety with 54% and DeSantis is second with 17%.
- Trump wins handling abortion with 44% and DeSantis is second with 14%; Haley is close behind at 13%.
- 44% of GOP primary voters say Trump’s ability to win the general election seriously concerns them, while 56% say it doesn’t seriously concern them.
Nuggets from new WSJ poll:
- 75% of Republican primary voters are favorable toward Trump and 23% are unfavorable.
- 70% are favorable toward DeSantis and 24% are unfavorable.
- 57% are favorable toward Haley and 28% are unfavorable.
- 55% are favorable toward Ramaswamy and 25% are unfavorable.
- 30% are favorable toward Pence and 63% are unfavorable.
- 48% of Republican primary voters say the indictments made them more likely to vote for Trump and 16% say less likely; 36% say they’ve had no impact on them.
ABORTION
Among voters nationwide
Which comes closest to your position on abortion? Do you think abortion should be…
- Legal in all cases: 26%
- Legal in most cases: 34%
- Illegal in most cases: 31%
- Illegal in all cases: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: 60% of voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 40% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. The most intense feelings favor the legal abortion side, 26% vs. 9%.
Would you call yourself “pro-life” or “pro-choice”?
- Pro-life: 31%
- Pro-choice: 37%
- Both pro-life and pro-choice: 23%
- Neither: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: About two-thirds of the electorate are willing to label themselves on abortion as either pro-life or pro-choice––but nearly one-fourth (22% of Democrats, 26% of independents and 22% of Republicans) views itself as both pro-life and pro-choice; another 7% say they’re neither.
Would you support or oppose Congress passing a law doing the following?
% = Support/Oppose
- Establishing a national right to abortion: 56%/38%
- Banning abortion nationwide: 25%/70%
- Banning abortion nationally after 15 weeks of pregnancy: 45%/45%
RON’S COMMENT: While only 25% of voters nationwide support “banning abortion,” 45% favor banning abortion after 15 weeks.
STATEWIDE ELECTIONS
Among voters statewide
MISSISSIPPI 2023
Governor (general election)
- Gov. Tate Reeves (R) over Brandon Presley (D): +11
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats had high hopes for Presley, an Elvis relative. Reeves’ numbers have been lackluster; this poll, for example, shows him at 46% favorable/49% unfavorable. But when the alternative is a Democrat, the GOP incumbent moves ahead by a clear lead. (poll from Mississippi Today/Siena)
WEST VIRGINIA 2024
Senate (general election):
- Jim Justice (R) over Sen. Joe Manchin (D): +13 (51-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Should Manchin seek re-election, he will have his hands full winning again in this red state. Justice is the current governor. (poll from MetroNews)
Governor (Republican primary):
- Moore Capito: 32%
- Patrick Mooney: 23%
- Chris Miller: 9%
- Mac Warner: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: This is for the open governorship. Incumbent Gov. Jim Justice (R) is term-limited. State legislator Capito is the son of U.S. Sen. Shelly Moore Capito. Mooney is AG, Miller is a businessman and son of U.S. Rep. Carol Miller and Warner is secretary of state. (poll from MetroNews)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron