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LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Abortion – Mississippi, West Virginia – Biden, Trump Tie


In Insights Posted


Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Down 2 from Aug. 30

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (up 3 from Aug. 30), putting his rating 14 points net-negative.

Among voters statewide


Among all voters 

  • Joe Biden and Donald Trump: even (46-46) WSJ
  • Donald Trump over Joe Biden and others: +1 (40-39-3) WSJ

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows a very tight race; Trump noses ahead when Green and Libertarian candidates are included…. Also: The latest Economist poll shows a generic Democratic candidate beats a generic Republican candidate 42-41, with 15% not sure.


Among Republican primary voters 

  • Donald Trump: 54%
  • Ron DeSantis: 15%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy: 7%
  • Nikki Haley: 6%
  • Mike Pence: 5%
  • Chris Christie: 3%
  • Tim Scott: 2%
  • Asa Hutchinson: 1%
  • Doug Burgum: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: Trump maintains a big lead with DeSantis a distant second; Ramaswamy and Haley follow.

Nuggets from new CNN poll:

  • 30% of Republican primary voters thought Ramaswamy won the last debate, while 28% thought DeSantis did; 20% said Haley and 8% said Pence. (Also: The new Economist poll shows top debate performers to be 18% for Ramaswamy, 14% for Haley, 11% for DeSantis and 2% for Pence.)
  • % of Republican primary voters who say they’re either currently supporting or would consider supporting the following candidates: Trump 81%, DeSantis 78%, Haley 63%, Scott 63%, Ramaswamy 58%, Pence 50%, Hutchinson 36%, Christie 33%. Note that 19% say they would not support Trump under any circumstances for the nomination.
  • Among GOP primary voters, Trump wins handling the situation in Ukrainewith 63% and Haley is second with 8%.
  • Trump wins handling the economy with 69% and DeSantis is second with 9%.
  • Trump wins handling the immigration with 65% and DeSantis is second with 13%.
  • Trump wins handling crime and safety with 54% and DeSantis is second with 17%.
  • Trump wins handling abortion with 44% and DeSantis is second with 14%; Haley is close behind at 13%.
  • 44% of GOP primary voters say Trump’s ability to win the general election seriously concerns them, while 56% say it doesn’t seriously concern them.

Nuggets from new WSJ poll:

  • 75% of Republican primary voters are favorable toward Trump and 23% are unfavorable.
  • 70% are favorable toward DeSantis and 24% are unfavorable.
  • 57% are favorable toward Haley and 28% are unfavorable.
  • 55% are favorable toward Ramaswamy and 25% are unfavorable.
  • 30% are favorable toward Pence and 63% are unfavorable.
  • 48% of Republican primary voters say the indictments made them more likely to vote for Trump and 16% say less likely; 36% say they’ve had no impact on them.

Among voters nationwide

Which comes closest to your position on abortion? Do you think abortion should be… 

  • Legal in all cases: 26%
  • Legal in most cases: 34%
  • Illegal in most cases: 31%
  • Illegal in all cases: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: 60% of voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 40% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. The most intense feelings favor the legal abortion side, 26% vs. 9%.

Would you call yourself “pro-life” or “pro-choice”? 

  • Pro-life: 31%
  • Pro-choice: 37%
  • Both pro-life and pro-choice: 23%
  • Neither: 7%

RON’S COMMENT: About two-thirds of the electorate are willing to label themselves on abortion as either pro-life or pro-choice––but nearly one-fourth (22% of Democrats, 26% of independents and 22% of Republicans) views itself as both pro-life and pro-choice; another 7% say they’re neither.

Would you support or oppose Congress passing a law doing the following? 

% = Support/Oppose

  • Establishing a national right to abortion: 56%/38%
  • Banning abortion nationwide: 25%/70%
  • Banning abortion nationally after 15 weeks of pregnancy: 45%/45%

RON’S COMMENT: While only 25% of voters nationwide support “banning abortion,” 45% favor banning abortion after 15 weeks.

Among voters statewide


Governor (general election)

  • Gov. Tate Reeves (R) over Brandon Presley (D): +11

RON’S COMMENT: Democrats had high hopes for Presley, an Elvis relative. Reeves’ numbers have been lackluster; this poll, for example, shows him at 46% favorable/49% unfavorable. But when the alternative is a Democrat, the GOP incumbent moves ahead by a clear lead. (poll from Mississippi Today/Siena)


Senate (general election):

  • Jim Justice (R) over Sen. Joe Manchin (D): +13 (51-38)

RON’S COMMENT: Should Manchin seek re-election, he will have his hands full winning again in this red state. Justice is the current governor. (poll from MetroNews)

Governor (Republican primary):

  • Moore Capito: 32%
  • Patrick Mooney: 23%
  • Chris Miller: 9%
  • Mac Warner: 7%

RON’S COMMENT: This is for the open governorship. Incumbent Gov. Jim Justice (R) is term-limited. State legislator Capito is the son of U.S. Sen. Shelly Moore Capito. Mooney is AG, Miller is a businessman and son of U.S. Rep. Carol Miller and Warner is secretary of state. (poll from MetroNews)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron